Your House May Be High on the Buyer Wish List This Holiday Season

Around this time each year, many homeowners decide to wait until after the holidays to sell their houses. Similarly, others who already have their homes on the market remove their listings until the spring. Let’s unpack the top reasons why selling your house now, or keeping it on the market this season, is the best choice you can make. This year, buyers want to purchase homes for the holidays, and your house might be the perfect match.

Here are seven great reasons not to wait to sell your house this holiday season:

1. Buyers are active now. Mortgage rates are historically low, providing motivation for those who are ready to get more for their money over the life of their home loan.

2. Purchasers who look for homes during the holidays are serious ones, and they’re ready to buy.

3. You can restrict the showings in your house to days and times that are most convenient for you, or even select virtual options. You’ll remain in control, especially in today’s sellers’ market.

4. Homes decorated for the holidays appeal to many buyers.

5. Today, there’s minimal competition for you as a seller. There just aren’t enough houses on the market to satisfy buyer demand, meaning sellers are in the driver’s seat. Over the past year, inventory has declined to record lows, making it the opportune time to sell your house (See graph below):

6. The desire to own a home doesn’t stop during the holidays. Buyers who have been searching throughout the fall and have been running into more and more bidding wars are still on the lookout. Your home may be the answer.

7. This season is the sweet spot for sellers, and the number of listings will increase after the holidays. In many parts of the country, more new construction will also be available for sale in 2021, which will lessen the demand for your house next year.

Bottom Line 

More than ever, this may be the year it makes the most sense to list your house during the holiday season. Reach out to a local real estate professional to determine if selling now is your best move.

Home Builder Confidence Hits All-Time Record

Last week, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported their Housing Market Index (HMI) hit an all-time high in the 35-year history of the series with a score of 83. The index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sale expectations for the next six months, as well as the traffic of prospective buyers of new homes.

As the following chart shows, confidence dropped dramatically when stay-in-place orders were originally mandated earlier this year. Since then, it has soared back.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for HMI scores, confidence increased in every region of the country:

• The Northeast increased 11 points to 76

• The Midwest jumped 9 points to 72

• The South rose 8 points to 79

• The West increased 7 points to 85

Confidence Is Validated by the Numbers

This confidence is definitely warranted. According to a recent NAHB report, single-family housing starts increased 4.1% to a 1.02 million annual rate, and single-family permits increased 6% to a 1.04 million unit rate, meaning newly constructed homes are on the rise.

A separate report from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) shows mortgage applications for new home purchases increased by 33.3% compared to a year ago. Joel Kan, Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting at MBA, commented on the numbers:

“The housing market continued to exceed expectations in August, as housing demand for new homes stayed strong and the job market continued to recover…The new home market has maintained its path of recovery throughout the summer, and record-low mortgage rates and households seeking more space will likely continue to drive demand into the fall.”

Bottom Line

If you’re thinking about putting your house on the market but are afraid you may not find a home to buy, speak with your local real estate professional about new construction opportunities in your area.

$100 Million in U.S. Tax Credits to go Toward Housing in Wildfire Areas, Including Napa

“Under pressure from fire survivors and elected officials, California Treasurer Fiona Ma said Friday that $100 million in new federal tax credits will be used as intended to pay for housing projects in 13 counties — including Napa County — that suffered devastation during wildfires in 2017 and 2018.

Sonoma County business and elected leaders had expressed concerns last month that the tax credits might be diverted for homeless housing developments, after a state committee overseen by Ma released planned guidelines for the use of the funding. They insisted the tax credits should be used for housing in fire-affected areas including the North Bay in 2017.

“We want to make it crystal clear that these tax credits are going to help counties that have been devastated by disasters,” Ma said in a prepared statement. “I salute the resilience, dedication, and creativity of these communities and I’m glad we can help them rebuild.”

Ma is chairwoman of the California Tax Credit Allocation Committee, which awards and distributes the federal tax credits. She said in Friday’s statement she is revising the committee’s regulations to give communities in 13 counties torched by infernos until the end of 2021 to seek credits for housing projects. The counties are: Butte, Lake, Los Angeles, Mendocino, Napa, Nevada, Orange, San Diego, Santa Barbara, Shasta, Sonoma, Ventura and Yuba.

Last year, Rep. Mike Thompson, D- Napa, wrote federal legislation directing additional tax credits for the 13 fire- ravaged counties statewide.

After the state treasurer’s office had released proposed guidelines for allocating the additional federal low-income housing tax credits, Thompson expressed his concerns in a Jan. 22 letter to Ma.

Late last month, Sonoma County Supervisor Lynda Hopkins said that, while she understands the urgent need for homeless housing, these federal tax credits should be used only for wildfire disaster recovery. The county lost 5,300 homes in the Tubbs inferno in October 2017 and continues to rebuild.

Federal low-income housing tax credits are the single most important tool used to finance and build affordable housing, said Larry Florin, executive director of nonprofit Burbank Housing based in Santa Rosa.

Developers like Burbank who receive such tax credits can sell the credits to investors such as banks. In this case, the purchased credit can be used as a tax break over 10 years.

“So the $100 million in tax credits becomes $1 billion over that period,” Florin said last month.

Florin and other Sonoma County leaders said previously if the state officials allocate the tax credits according to the damage caused by recent wildfires, North Bay and Northern California counties would end up getting about 30% of the tax credits.

State Sen. Mike McGuire, D-Healdsburg, commended Ma for her clarification Friday on the use of the federal funds.

“This $100 million in tax credits will be a huge shot in the arm for the rebuilding of our communities and desperately needed affordable housing,” McGuire said.”

By: Bill Swindell The Press Democrat

One Way to Help the Housing Problems in Napa Valley with Manufactured Homes

I wanted to share this article with you that was in the Napa Valley Register on January 26th. It discusses one possible solution to the lack of affordable housing and construction costs/backlog (due to fires).

“A massive factory that churned out submarines to help win World War II has been retooled to tackle a new crisis: the shortage of low-cost housing.

Based on Mare Island’s Building 680, Factory OS manufactures housing units that can be hoisted by cranes and stacked like Lego blocks, similar to the units manufactured by a different company for Turley Flats on Pope Street.

Last September, Factory OS pre-assembled 110 units for a West Oakland project. A stick-built project of that size would take about a year to build. Factory OS installed the entire five-story complex in 10 days.

“We can build something as good as if not better than anything you can do on site,” Factory OS co-founder Peter Palmisano told a group of St. Helena city officials and housing advocates who toured the 250,000-square-foot factory on Jan. 10.

The start-up requires a minimum order of 50 units, but Palmisano said he’s willing to make an exception for St. Helena, the town where he’s lived since 1979.

The nonprofit Our Town St. Helena has been in talks with a local family about building affordable units on a St. Helena property. The site might be suitable for 25-35 units.

Factory OS is offering to team up with Our Town on the project. Palmisano said he hopes the city offers relief from various permitting fees, cuts some red tape during the entitlement process, and demonstrates the political will to get some units on the ground.

“There’s a can-do spirit in this community,” he said. “There’s money, there’s intelligence. We just need the will.”

Palmisano is even offering to install a Factory OS unit on his own west-side residential property as a test case so people can see it for themselves.

The units have a maximum size of 16 feet wide by 72 feet long. Palmisano said he can build them for about $155 per square foot. That includes washers, dryers, lights, water fixtures and kitchen appliances. Even with the additional cost of land preparation and installation, Factory OS’s process is still vastly cheaper than typical Upvalley residential projects.

Since they are built off site, Factory OS units can be installed in a matter of days, minimizing financing costs and the impact on the surrounding neighborhood, Palmisano said.

Mary Stephenson of Our Town St. Helena said units built off-site could provide infill housing all over St. Helena.

“If the community could see this, they would say ‘Oh, this isn’t bad. We could do this,’” Stephenson said.

In addition to managing the development of Meadowood Resort and other major projects, Palmisano served on the board of Bridge Housing Corporation, which developed Hunt’s Grove Apartments, and was a founding board member Our Town St. Helena, which is developing Brenkle Court and recently acquired a property on Pope Street.

Palmisano said he’s worried about a lack of housing for workers and professionals.

“These are the people who are vital to our community,” Palmisano said. “If we’re going to sustain the feeling of our small town … then affordable housing is key.”

Mayor Geoff Ellsworth, City Manager Mark Prestwich, Planning Commissioner Daniel Hale, Senior Planner Aaron Hecock, and Chief Building Official Philip Henry attended the tour, along with representatives of Our Town and Napa Valley Community Housing.

Ellsworth said that with the current council and staff, “this is the perfect opportunity” to try an innovative approach to affordable housing.

Ellsworth said he likes the idea of showing the community a tangible test case to demonstrate that units like Factory OS’s “fit the character of our town.”

“Let’s have the discussion and see what we can do,” he said.

To join an upcoming tour of Factory OS, email mary@ourtownsthelena.org.”

JESSE DUARTE jduarte@sthelenastar.com Jan 26, 2020 Updated Jan 26, 2020

The #1 Reason It is Difficult to Find Your Dream Home

The headlines in real estate today all revolve around one major point: there is a shortage of homes available for sale. Price appreciation is accelerating again because there is a shortage of homes available for sale. First-time buyers are taking longer to purchase a home because there is a shortage of homes available for sale in the lower price points. Boomers are staying in their current homes longer because there is a shortage of homes available for sale to which they would move. In certain markets, affordability is becoming more challenging because there is a shortage of homes available for sale.

What’s the major reason for this lack of housing inventory?

The issue was examined in a recent article by the National Home Builders Association (NAHB). In the article, Robert Dietz, Chief Economist for NAHB, explained:

“Home building in the 2010s was a story of the Long Recovery. After the Great Recession, the number of home builders declined significantly, and housing production was unable to meet buyer demand…Years of population and household formation growth, combined with relatively reduced levels of home building, have left the market with a critical supply shortage.”

Here are the single-family home construction starts by decade for the last six decades:

Obviously, there’s a current shortage of homes for sale because not enough houses were built over the last ten years. To add to the challenge, the U.S. population expanded by more than 20 million people during the 2010s.

Below is a graph showing the number of starts per every million in population. The last decade shows that starts per population were less than half the average of the previous five decades.

There’s good news coming!

The NAHB article explains that there is light at the end of the tunnel.

How confident home builders are in the housing market is a great indicator of how much building is about to get started. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair,” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average,” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as “good” than “poor.”

Here are the HMI readings going back to 2008:

The 2019 confidence reading of 76 was the highest since 1999. The January 2020 index came in one point lower at 75. These readings indicate we should see an increase in new residential construction in 2020. Just last week, NAHB Chairman Greg Ugalde stated:

“Low interest rates and a healthy labor market combined with a need for additional inventory are setting the stage for further home building gains in 2020.”

The increase in housing starts has already begun. According to the January report from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, single‐family housing starts were up 11.2% and attained the highest level in thirteen years.

Bottom Line

Whether you’re a first-time buyer or a seller thinking of moving up or down, 2020 could be your year with more new construction homes coming to market.