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What is Happening with the Napa Valley Real Estate Market?

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August 2022 Statistics

In August everything was down year over year. The total homes for sale were down 24.8% (65 homes), the number of sold homes was down 28.4% (31 homes), the number of pending was down 24% (24 homes), the average sold amount was down 7.1% ($152k on average), the average dollar per square foot was down 8.8% ($84 on average) and the average number of days on market was down 47.3% (39 days). To get a better understanding of the right time to buy/sell, click here for a breakout by town.

This might be a good time to buy with a potential softening of the market in certain places. Make sure to talk to a lender for preapproval and to understand what you can afford. If you don't have one I'm happy to help you find one in your area.

Today's Rates (please check with your lender as these change regularly):

30 Yr FRM 6.33%

15 Yr FRM 5.55%

FHA 30 Year Fixed 5.60%

Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 5.65%

5/1 Year ARM 6.00%

VA 30 Year Fixed 5.65%

Is the Real Estate Market Slowing Down, or Is This a Housing Bubble?

The talk of a housing bubble in the coming year seems to be at a fever pitch as rising mortgage rates continue to slow down an overheated real estate market. Over the past two years, home prices have appreciated at an unsustainable pace causing many to ask: are things just slowing down, or is a crash coming?

To answer this question, there are two things we want to understand. The first is the reality of the shift in today’s housing market. And the second is what experts are saying about home prices in the coming year.

The Reality of the Shift in Today’s Housing Market

The reality is we’re seeing an inflection point in housing supply and demand. According to realtor.com, active listings have increased more than 26% over last year, while showings from the latest ShowingTime Showing Index have decreased almost 17% from last year (see graph below). This is an inflection point for housing because, over the past two years, we’ve seen a massive amount of demand (showings) and not enough homes available for sale for the number of people that wanted to buy. That caused the market frenzy.

Today, supply and demand look very different, and the market is slowing down from the pace we’ve seen.

What Experts Are Saying About Home Prices in the Coming Year

Right now, most experts are forecasting home price appreciation in 2023, but at a much slower pace than the last two years. The average of the six forecasters below is for national home prices to appreciate by 2.5% in the coming year. Only one of the six is calling for home price depreciation.

When we look at the shift taking place along with what experts are saying, we can conclude the national real estate market is slowing down but is not a bubble getting ready to burst. This isn’t to say that a few overheated markets won’t experience home price depreciation, but there isn’t a case to be made for a national housing bubble.

Bottom Line

The real estate market is slowing down, and that’s causing many to fear we’re in a housing bubble. What we’ve experienced in the housing market over the past two years were historic levels of demand and constrained supply. That led to homes going up in value at a record pace. While some overheated markets may experience price depreciation in the short term, according to experts, the national real estate market will appreciate in the coming year.

Buyers Are Regaining Some of Their Negotiation Power in Today’s Housing Market

If you’re thinking about buying a home today, there’s welcome news. Even though it’s still a sellers’ market, it’s a more moderate sellers’ market than last year. And the days of feeling like you may need to waive contingencies or pay drastically over asking price to get your offer considered may be coming to a close.

Today, you should have less competition and more negotiating power as a buyer. That’s because the intensity of buyer demand and bidding wars is easing this year. So, if bidding wars were the biggest factor that had you sitting on the sidelines, here are two trends that may be just what you need to re-enter the market.

1. The Return of Contingencies

Over the last two years, more buyers were willing to skip important steps in the homebuying process, like the appraisal or inspection, to try to win a bidding war. But now, fewer people are waiving the inspection and appraisal.

The latest data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows the percentage of buyers waiving their home inspection and appraisal is declining. And a recent survey from realtor.com confirms more sellers are accepting offers that include these conditions today. According to their August study:

  • 95% of sellers reported buyers requested a home inspection

  • 67% of sellers negotiated with buyers on repairs as a result of the inspection findings

This goes to show buyers are more able to include these conditions in their offers today and negotiate as needed based on the outcome of the inspection.

2. Sellers Are More Willing To Help with Closing Costs

Generally, closing costs range between 2% and 5% of the purchase price for the home. Before the pandemic, it was a common negotiation tactic for sellers to cover some of the buyer’s closing costs to sweeten the deal. This didn’t happen as much during the peak buyer frenzy over the past two years.

Today, as the market shifts and demand slows, data from realtor.com suggests this is making a comeback. A recent article shows 32% of sellers paid some or all of their buyer’s closing costs. This may be a negotiation tool you’ll see as you go to purchase a home. Just keep in mind, limits on closing cost credits are set by your lender and can vary by state and loan type. Work closely with your loan advisor to understand how much a seller can contribute to closing costs in your area.

Bottom Line

Regardless of the extremely competitive housing market of the past several years, today’s data suggests negotiations are starting to come back on the table. This is good news if you’re planning to enter the housing market. To find out how the market is shifting in your area, connect with your local real estate advisor today.

The U.S. Homeownership Rate Is Growing

The desire to own a home is still strong today. In fact, according to the Census, the U.S. homeownership rate is on the rise.

That data shows more than half of the U.S. population live in a home they own, and the percentage is growing with time.

If you’re thinking about buying a home this year, here are just a few reasons why so many people see the value of homeownership.

Why Are More People Becoming Homeowners?

There are several benefits to owning your home. A significant one, especially when inflation is high like it is today, is that homeownership can help protect you from rising costs. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), explains:

“In the 1970s, when inflation was running around 10%, home prices were rising at approximately the same rate. Renters actually have a harder time in inflationary periods, because rents tend to rise along with inflation, whereas mortgage payments stay the same for homeowners with fixed-rate mortgages.”

When you buy a home with a fixed-rate mortgage, you can lock in what’s likely your biggest monthly expense – your housing payment – for the duration of that loan, often 15-30 years.

That gives you a predictable monthly housing expense that can benefit you in the short term, but you’ll also gain equity over time as your home appreciates in value and you make your monthly mortgage payment.

And with that growing equity, your net worth will increase as well. In fact, the latest data from NAR shows the median household net worth of a homeowner is roughly $300,000, while the median net worth of renters is only about $8,000. That means a homeowner’s net worth is nearly 40 times that of a renter.

Bottom Line

The U.S. homeownership rate is growing. If you’re ready to purchase the home of your dreams, contact a local real estate professional to begin the homebuying process today.

Our Economy and the Impact on Real Estate

With every other news headline talking about our economy, it’s impossible to not think about the impact it will have on real estate.

The truth is: even though the housing market is cooling, it is still nowhere near a normal market.

The question is: do you know that?

With media painting a certain picture, you may be thinking the worst about the market, putting your real estate plans on hold or worse, panicking that we’re going to see a housing collapse.

That’s why these are the 5 slides that you need to see.

A RECESSION DOESN’T MEAN HOME PRICES WILL FALL

We all remember what happened in 2008, and unfortunately for many of you, the words “recession” and “housing bubble” immediately bring back memories of the crash.

However, there are big differences between today’s market and the ones leading up to the crash.

Here are the reasons today is nothing like the last time.

Before the Great Recession, the housing market had:

  • Loose lending standards

  • An oversupply of homes

  • Overtapped equity

Today’s market looks the opposite with:

  • Stricter lending practices

  • An undersupply of homes

  • More equity

In fact, in four out of the last six recessions home prices still appreciated, and experts project the same for this year’s forecast.

HOUSING EXPERTS PROJECT CONTINUED PRICE APPRECIATION

While growing, inventory is still low overall. That’s why most major housing experts project ongoing home price appreciation in most markets. It will just happen at a more moderate pace moving forward.

Why? Because the amount of homes for sale still doesn’t match demand from buyers.

WAITING TO BUY? IT MAY COST MORE THAN TIME

As the saying goes, trying to time the housing market perfectly is a bit like playing the lottery.

While we can never truly foresee what’s going to happen, we can keep our spheres up-to-date on the latest insights, especially in a shifting market.

And the truth is, with the current unpredictability of mortgage rates and experts predicting continued home price appreciation, buying a home sooner than later may be the better financial decision.

Even at a more typical pace of appreciation, buyers still stand to make significant equity gains as their home grows in value.

THE SHIFTING MARKET IS GREAT NEWS FOR BUYERS

It’s probably one of the biggest questions right now: should I buy a home right now?

The good news is that what was once your greatest challenge may now be your greatest opportunity.

Today, data shows buyer demand is moderating in the wake of higher mortgage rates. Here are a few reasons why this shift in the housing market is good news for your homebuying plans.

  • Moderating demand is slowing the pace of home sales

  • Housing supply is finally able to grow which means more options to choose from

  • Bidding wars have eased in recent months

This is great news for anyone that may have put off their buying plans in the last two years because the market was too hot for them to handle.

IT‘S STILL A SELLER’S MARKET

As there’s more and more talk about the real estate market cooling off from the peak frenzy it saw during the pandemic, you may wonder what that means for sellers.

The good news is: it’s still a seller’s market. Here’s why:

  • Even though inventory is growing, there’s still a shortage of homes to meet buyer demand

  • Conditions are still in the seller’s favor

  • While buyer demand is softening due to higher mortgage rates, homes that are priced right are still selling fast.

“Overall, the best summary is that we’ll move from a gangbuster sellers’ market to a modest sellers’ market,” said Ed Pinto, Director of the American Enterprise Institute’s Housing Center

If sellers had any doubts about it, this should help clear up their confusion and shed light on the fact that they still very much remain in the driver’s seat for the housing market.

Bottom Line

While the real estate market continues to shift, there is still a lot of speculation about what the future holds.

Be sure to talk with your local Realtor for information pertaining specifically to your market.

Should You Buy a Home with Inflation This High?

While the Federal Reserve is working hard to bring down inflation, the latest data shows the inflation rate is still going up. You no doubt are feeling the pinch on your wallet at the gas pump or the grocery store, but that news may also leave you wondering: should I still buy a home right now?

Greg McBride, Chief Financial Analyst at Bankrate, explains how inflation is affecting the housing market:

Inflation will have a strong influence on where mortgage rates go in the months ahead. . . . Whenever inflation finally starts to ease, so will mortgage rates — but even then, home prices are still subject to demand and very tight supply.”

No one knows how long it’ll take to bring down inflation, and that means the future trajectory of mortgage rates is also unclear. While that uncertainty isn’t comfortable, here’s why both inflation and mortgage rates are important for you and your homeownership plans.

When you buy a home, the mortgage rate and the price of the home matter. Higher mortgage rates impact how much you’ll pay for your monthly mortgage payment – and that directly affects how much you can comfortably afford. And while there’s no denying it’s more expensive to buy and finance a home this year than it was last year, it doesn’t mean you should pause your search. Here’s why.

Homeownership Is Historically a Great Hedge Against Inflation

In an inflationary economy, prices rise across the board. Historically, homeownership is a great hedge against those rising costs because you can lock in what’s likely your largest monthly payment (your mortgage) for the duration of your loan. That helps stabilize some of your monthly expenses. Not to mention, as home prices continue to appreciate, your home’s value will too. That’s why Mark Cussen, Financial Writer at Investopedia, says: 

Real estate is one of the time-honored inflation hedges. It’s a tangible asset, and those tend to hold their value when inflation reigns, unlike paper assets. More specifically, as prices rise, so do property values.”

Also, no one is calling for homes to lose value. As Selma Hepp, Deputy Chief Economist at CoreLogic, says:

“The current home price growth rate is unsustainable, and higher mortgage rates coupled with more inventory will lead to slower home price growth but unlikely declines in home prices.”

In a nutshell, your home search doesn’t have to go on hold because of rising inflation or higher mortgage rates. There’s more to consider when it comes to why you want to buy a home. In addition to shielding yourself from the impact of inflation and growing your wealth through ongoing price appreciation, there are other reasons to buy a home right now like addressing your changing needs and so much more.

Bottom Line

Homeownership is one of the best decisions you can make in an inflationary economy. You get the benefit of the added security of owning your home in a time when experts are forecasting prices to continue to rise.

Expert Housing Market Forecasts for the Second Half of the Year

The housing market is at a turning point, and if you’re thinking of buying or selling a home, that may leave you wondering: is it still a good time to buy a home? Should I make a move this year? To help answer those questions, let’s turn to the experts for projections on what the second half of the year holds for residential real estate.

Where Mortgage Rates Will Go Depends on Inflation

While one of the big questions on all buyers’ minds is where will mortgage rates go in the months ahead, no one has a crystal ball to know exactly what’ll happen in the future. What housing market experts know for sure is that the record-low mortgage rates during the pandemic were an outlier, not the norm.

This year, rates have climbed over 2% due to the Federal Reserve’s response to rising inflation. If inflation continues to rise, it’s likely that mortgage rates will respond. Greg McBride, Chief Financial Analyst at Bankrate, explains it well:

“Until inflation peaks, mortgage rates won’t either. Without improvement on the inflation front, we don’t know where the interest rate ceiling will be.”

Whether you’re buying your first home or selling your current house to make a move, today’s mortgage rate is an important factor to consider. When rates rise, they impact affordability and your purchasing power. That’s why it’s crucial to work with a team of professionals, so you have expert advice to help you make an informed decision about your best move.

The Supply of Homes for Sale Projected To Continue Increasing

This year, particularly this spring, the number of homes for sale has grown. That’s partly due to more homeowners listing their houses, but also because higher mortgage rates have helped ease the intensity of buyer demand. Moderating buyer demand slows down the pace of home sales, which in turn helps inventory rise.

Experts say that growth will continue. Recently, realtor.com updated their 2022 inventory forecast. In the latest release, they increased their projections for inventory gains dramatically, going from a 0.3% increase at the beginning of the year to a 15.0% jump by the end of 2022.

More homes to choose from is great news if you’re craving more options for your home search – just know that there isn’t a sudden surplus of inventory on the horizon. Housing supply is still low, so you’ll need to partner with an agent to stay on top of what’s available in your market and move fast when you find the one. It’s not going to be easy to find a home, but it certainly won’t be as difficult as it has been over the past two years.

Home Price Forecasts Call for Ongoing Appreciation

Due to the imbalance between the number of homes for sale and the number of buyers looking to make a purchase, the pandemic led to record-breaking increases in home prices. According to CoreLogic, homes appreciated by 15% in 2021, and they’ve continued to rise this year.

Even though housing supply is increasing today, there are still more buyers than there are homes for sale, and that’s maintaining the upward pressure on home prices. That’s why experts are not calling for prices to decline, rather they’re forecasting they’ll continue to climb, just at a more moderate pace this year. On average, homes are projected to appreciate by about 8.5% in 2022.

Selma Hepp, Deputy Chief Economist at CoreLogic, explains why the housing market will see deceleration, but not depreciation, in prices:

“The current home price growth rate is unsustainable, and higher mortgage rates coupled with more inventory will lead to slower home price growth but unlikely declines in home prices.

For current homeowners looking to sell, know your home’s value isn’t projected to fall, but waiting to make your purchase does mean your next home could cost more as home prices continue to appreciate. That’s why, if you’re thinking about buying your first home or you’re ready to make a move, it may make sense to do so now before prices climb higher. But rest assured, once you buy a home, that price appreciation will help grow the value of your investment.

Bottom Line

Whether you’re a homebuyer or seller, you need to know what’s happening in the housing market, so you can make the most informed decision possible. Connect with a real estate advisor to discuss your goals and what lies ahead, so you can determine the best plan for your move.

Is Lack of Homes for Sale Still a Problem in Napa Valley?

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February 2022 Statistics

In February the total homes for sale were down 19.8% (25 homes) while the number of sold homes was relatively flat(down 3.5% or 2 homes) and the number of pending up 28.6% (18 homes). More glaring was the average sold amount which was up 34.9% ($370k on average) and the average dollar per square foot was also up 55.2% ($311.5 on average). The average number of days on market was up 17.1% (12.75 days). To get a better understanding of the right time to buy/sell, click here for a breakout by town.


This might be the best time to buy before the interest rates go up again. Make sure to talk to a lender for preapproval and to understand what you can afford. If you don't have one I'm happy to help you find one in your area.

Today's Rates (please check with your lender as these change regularly):

30 Yr FRM 4.50%

15 Yr FRM 3.88%

FHA 30 Year Fixed 4.0%

Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.95%

5/1 ARM 3.82%

What’s Going To Happen with Home Prices This Year?

After almost two years of double-digit increases, many experts thought home price appreciation would decelerate or happen at a slower pace in the last quarter of 2021. However, the latest Home Price Insights Report from CoreLogic indicates while prices may have plateaued, appreciation has definitely not slowed. Appreciation has remained steady at around 18% over the last five months.

In addition, the latest S&P Case-Shiller Price Index and the FHFA Price Index show a slight deceleration from the same time last year – it’s just not at the level that was expected. However, they also both indicate there’s continued strong price growth throughout the country. FHFA reports all nine regions of the country still experienced double-digit appreciation. The Case-Shiller 20-City Index reveals all 20 metros had double-digit appreciation.

Why Haven’t We Seen the Deeper Deceleration Many Expected?

Experts had projected the supply of housing inventory would increase in the last half of 2021 and buyer demand would decrease, as it historically does later in the year. Since all pricing is subject to supply and demand, it seemed that appreciation would wane under those conditions.

Buyer demand, however, did not slow as much as expected, and the number of listings available for sale dropped instead of improved.

Here are three reasons why the number of active listings didn’t increase as expected:

1. There hasn’t been a surge of foreclosures as the forbearance program comes to an end.

2. New construction slowed considerably because of supply chain challenges.

3. Many believed more sellers would put their houses on the market once the concerns about the pandemic began to ease. However, those concerns have not yet disappeared. A recent article published by com explains:

“Before the omicron variant of COVID-19 appeared on the scene, the 2021 housing market was rebounding healthily from previous waves of the pandemic and turned downright bullish as the end of the year approached. . . . And then the new omicron strain hit in November, followed by a December dip in new listings. Was this sudden drop due to omicron, or just the typical holiday season lull?”

No one knows for sure, but it does seem possible.

Bottom Line

Home price appreciation might slow (or decelerate) in 2022. However, based on supply and demand, you shouldn’t expect the deceleration to be swift or deep.

✨𝔼𝕝𝕚𝕫𝕒𝕓𝕖𝕥𝕙 𝕊𝕡𝕖𝕟𝕔𝕖𝕣 𝕎𝕚𝕟𝕖𝕣𝕪 𝕤𝕖𝕝𝕝𝕤 𝕥𝕠 𝕁𝕖𝕒𝕟-ℂ𝕙𝕒𝕣𝕝𝕖𝕤 𝔹𝕠𝕚𝕤𝕤𝕖𝕥 - 𝔻𝕖𝕔𝕖𝕞𝕓𝕖𝕣 𝟚𝟘𝟚𝟙✨

Engel & Völkers - St. Helena Shop is proud to congratulate our Advisor, Kate Spadarotto as trusted real estate representative for these two Napa Valley legacy families through the transfer of this iconic property and brand from one to the other.

Husband and wife partners, Elizabeth Pressler and Spencer Graham came to Kate and her supporting group of Advisors at the EV St. Helena Shop for advice on how to secure the “right successor” for their ESW portfolio of 20 years of passionate collaboration. After evaluating property constraints, opportunities for the property and brand, Kate went to work and ultimately introduced the opportunity to Jean-Charles. JCB’s commitment to Napa Valley, express love for Rutherford specifically, his gift of vision, and his commitment to be the thoughtful steward of ESW resulted in the perfect succession.

EV St. Helena’s stable of real estate professionals continues to add successes to its impressive track record representing both buyers and sellers of single-family homes, luxury properties, vineyards, wineries, as well as commercial and development properties at all price points currently ranging from $400,000 to $200M.

Keep your eye on JCB’s new project in Rutherford! You know it’s going to be great!

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