Buying Real Estate

What is Happening with the Napa Valley Real Estate Market?

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August 2022 Statistics

In August everything was down year over year. The total homes for sale were down 24.8% (65 homes), the number of sold homes was down 28.4% (31 homes), the number of pending was down 24% (24 homes), the average sold amount was down 7.1% ($152k on average), the average dollar per square foot was down 8.8% ($84 on average) and the average number of days on market was down 47.3% (39 days). To get a better understanding of the right time to buy/sell, click here for a breakout by town.

This might be a good time to buy with a potential softening of the market in certain places. Make sure to talk to a lender for preapproval and to understand what you can afford. If you don't have one I'm happy to help you find one in your area.

Today's Rates (please check with your lender as these change regularly):

30 Yr FRM 6.33%

15 Yr FRM 5.55%

FHA 30 Year Fixed 5.60%

Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 5.65%

5/1 Year ARM 6.00%

VA 30 Year Fixed 5.65%

Is Lack of Homes for Sale Still a Problem in Napa Valley?

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February 2022 Statistics

In February the total homes for sale were down 19.8% (25 homes) while the number of sold homes was relatively flat(down 3.5% or 2 homes) and the number of pending up 28.6% (18 homes). More glaring was the average sold amount which was up 34.9% ($370k on average) and the average dollar per square foot was also up 55.2% ($311.5 on average). The average number of days on market was up 17.1% (12.75 days). To get a better understanding of the right time to buy/sell, click here for a breakout by town.


This might be the best time to buy before the interest rates go up again. Make sure to talk to a lender for preapproval and to understand what you can afford. If you don't have one I'm happy to help you find one in your area.

Today's Rates (please check with your lender as these change regularly):

30 Yr FRM 4.50%

15 Yr FRM 3.88%

FHA 30 Year Fixed 4.0%

Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.95%

5/1 ARM 3.82%

What Everyone Wants To Know: Will Home Prices Decline in 2022?

If you’re thinking of buying a home in today’s housing market, you may be wondering how strong your investment will be. You might be asking yourself: if I buy a home now, will it lose value? Or will it continue to appreciate going forward? The good news is, according to the experts, home prices are not projected to decline. Here’s why.

With buyers still outweighing sellers, home prices are forecast to continue climbing in 2022, just at a slower or more moderate pace. Why the continued increase? It’s the simple law of supply and demand. When there are fewer items on the market than there are buyers, the competition for that item makes prices naturally rise.

And while the number of homes for sale today is expected to improve with more sellers getting ready to list their houses this winter, we’re certainly not out of the inventory woods yet. Thus, the projections show continued appreciation, but at a more moderate rate than what we’ve seen over the past year.

None of the major experts are projecting depreciation in 2022. They’re all showing an increase in home prices next year.

And here’s what some of the industry’s experts say about how that will play out in the housing market next year:

Brad Hunter of Hunter Housing Economics explains:

“. . . the recent unsustainable rate of home price appreciation will slow sharply. . . . home prices will not decline. . . but they will simply rise at a more sustainable pace.”

Danielle Hale from realtor.com agrees:

Price growth is expected to move back toward a normal range, but this is on top of recent high prices, . . . So prices will [still] hit new highs. . . . The pace of price growth is going to slow notably . . . ”

What Does This Mean for the Housing Market?

While home price appreciation is expected to continue, it isn’t projected to be the record-breaking 18 to almost 20% increase the market saw over the past 12 months. Overall, it’s important to note that price increases won’t be as monumental as they were in 2021 – but they certainly won’t decline anytime soon.

What Does That Mean for You?

With motivated buyers in the market and so few homes available to purchase, the imbalance of supply and demand will continue to put upward pressure on home prices in 2022. And when home price appreciation is in the forecast, that’s a clear indication your investment in homeownership is a sound one.

Bottom Line

It’s important to know that home prices are not projected to decline in the new year. Instead, they’re forecast to rise, just at a more moderate pace. That’s why it’s mission-critical to work with a trusted advisor to make sure you’re up to date on what’s happening with home price appreciation in your market, so you can make an informed decision about your next move.

It's Still A Great Time to Sell!: Napa Valley Statistics & Analysis

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It's Still a Great Time To Sell!

October Statistics

The absorption rate has dropped but is still at 47.6% mostly because of the town of Napa again which had a 54.7% absorption rate. As a reminder, typically rates below 15% indicate a buyer's market and above 20% is a seller's market. While this is a seller's market, the interest rates are still at historic lows which makes it a great time to buy as well! If you are considering buying and will need a mortgage, I would highly recommend reaching out to a mortgage lender for prequalification. This way you will be prepared and have one up on other buyers.

In October total homes for sale was down 31.7% (106 homes) but the total sold was up 14.9% (15 homes). The number of pending sales was also up 23% (17 homes). The average sold amount was down 7.6% ($126k on average) but the average dollar per square foot was up 34% (on average of $203). The average days on market was up 26.1% (117 days this year at 93 last year).  To get a better understanding of the right time to buy/sell, click here for a breakout by town.

Today's Rates (please check with your lender as these change regularly):

30 Yr FRM 2.92%

15 Yr FRM 2.42%

FHA 30 Year Fixed 2.38%

Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.28%

5/1 ARM 2.74%

Thinking About Selling Your Home? Napa Valley Statistics & Analysis

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Thinking About Selling Your Home? Napa Valley Statistics & Analysis

September Statistics

The absorption rate is over 100% again (107.6%) mostly because of the town of Napa again which had a 142% absorption rate which makes this a seller's market. As a reminder, typically rates below 15% indicate a buyer's market and above 20% is a seller's market. While this is a seller's market, the interest rates are at historic lows so this still makes it a great time to buy as well!

The only statistics that were down year over year was inventory which continues to decrease and days on market. As buyers continue looking for more space, we are seeing that the number of sales and pending sales are increasing year over year. If you are thinking about selling, this could be a great time!

This is also a great time to buy with historically low mortgage rates. If you are considering buying and will need a mortgage, I would highly recommend reaching out to a mortgage lender for prequalification. This way you will be prepared and have one up on other buyers.

In September total homes for sale was down 33% or 116 homes but the total sold was up 23.4% (25 homes). The number of pending sales was also up 21% (21 homes). The average sold amount was up 25.3% ($284k on average) as was the average dollar per square foot (up 25.3% at an average of $208). The average days on market was down 5.4% (101 days this year at 107 last year).   To get a better understanding of the right time to buy/sell, click here for a breakout by town.

Today's Rates (please check with your lender as these change regularly):

30 Yr FRM 3.04%

15 Yr FRM 2.57%

FHA 30 Year Fixed 2.43%

Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.40%

Ready to Sell? The Market is Saying it's Time! Napa Valley Statistics & Analysis

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Ready to Sell? The Market is Saying It's Time!

July Statistics

The absorption rate is over 100% (102.6%) which makes this a seller's market. As a reminder, typically rates below 15% indicate a buyer's market and above 20% is a seller's market. While this is a seller's market, the interest rates are at historic lows so this still makes it a great time to buy as well!

The only statistic that was down year over year was inventory which continues to decrease. As buyers continue looking for more space we are seeing that the number of sales and pending sales are increasing year over year. We are still seeing more luxury homes selling and at faster rates. For these reasons the absorption rate is so high. If you are thinking about selling, this could be a great time!

If you are considering buying and will need a mortgage, I would highly recommend reaching out to a mortgage lender for prequalification. This way you will be prepared and have one up on other buyers.

In July total homes for sale was down 25.7% or 92 homes but the total sold was up 30.4% (31 homes). The number of pending sales was also up 68.7% (57 homes). The average sold amount was up 62% ($606k) and the average dollar per square foot was up 19.4% ($114.25). The average days on market was flat at 102 days both this year and last year.  To get a better understanding of the right time to buy/sell, click here for a breakout by town.

Today's Rates (please check with your lender as these change regularly):

30 Yr FRM 2.92%

15 Yr FRM 2.41%

FHA 30 Year Fixed 2.38%

Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.58%

5/1 Year ARM 2.75%

How Is Remote Work Changing Homebuyer Needs?

Daily Mortgage Rate Survey

  • 30YR 2.82%

  • 15YR 2.38%

  • FHA30YR 2.25%

  • Jumbo30YR 3.58%

  • 5/1ARM 2.75%

With more companies figuring out how to efficiently and effectively enable their employees to work remotely (and for longer than most of us initially expected), homeowners throughout the country are re-evaluating their needs. Do I still need to live close to my company’s office building? Do I need a larger home with more office space? Would making a move to the suburbs make more sense for my family? All of these questions are on the table for many Americans as we ride the wave of the current health crisis and consider evolving homeownership needs.

According to George RatiuSenior Economist for realtor.com:

“The ability to work remotely is expanding home shoppers’ geographic options and driving their motivation to buy, even if it means a longer commute, at least in the short term…Although it’s too early to tell what long-term impact the COVID-era of remote work will have on housing, it’s clear that the pandemic is shaping how people live and work under the same roof.” 

Working remotely is definitely changing how Americans spend their time at home, and also how they use their available square footage. Homeowners aren’t just looking for a room for a home office, either. The desire to have a home gym, an updated kitchen, and more space in general – indoor and outdoor – are all key factors motivating some buyers to change their home search parameters.

A recent realtor.com-HarrisX survey indicates:

“In a June poll of 2,000 potential home shoppers who indicated plans to make a purchase in the next year, 63% of those currently working from home stated their potential purchase was a result of their ability to work remotely, while nearly 40% [of] that number expected to purchase a home within four to six months and 13% said changes related to pandemic fueled their interest in buying a new home.

Clearly, Americans are thinking differently about homeownership today, and through a new lens. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) notes:

“New single-family home sales jumped in June, as housing demand was supported by low interest rates, a renewed consumer focus on the importance of housing, and rising demand in lower-density markets like suburbs and exurbs.”

Through these challenging times, you may have found your home becoming your office, your children’s classroom, your workout facility, and your family’s safe haven. This has quickly shifted what home truly means to many American families. More than ever, having a place to focus on professional productivity while many competing priorities (and distractions!) are knocking on your door is challenging homeowners to get creative, use space wisely, and ultimately find a place where all of these essential needs can realistically be met. In many cases, a new home is the best option.

In today’s real estate market, making a move while mortgage rates are hovering at historic lows may enable you to purchase more home for your money, just when you and your family need it most.

Bottom Line

If your personal and professional needs have changed and you’re ready to accommodate all of your family’s competing priorities, reach out to a local real estate professional today. Making a move into a larger home may be exactly what you need to set your family up for optimal long-term success.

Home Sales Hit a Record-Setting Rebound

With a worldwide health crisis that drove a pause in the economy this year, the housing market was greatly impacted. Many have been eagerly awaiting some bright signs of a recovery. Based on the latest Existing Home Sales Report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), June hit a much-anticipated record-setting rebound to ignite that spark.

According to NARhome sales jumped 20.7% from May to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 4.72 million in June: 

“Existing-home sales rebounded at a record pace in June, showing strong signs of a market turnaround after three straight months of sales declines caused by the ongoing pandemic…Each of the four major regions achieved month-over-month growth.”

Kate_Spad_Blog_Existing_Home_Sales.jpg

This significant rebound is a major boost for the housing market and the U.S. economy. According to Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for NAR, the momentum has the potential to continue on, too:

“The sales recovery is strong, as buyers were eager to purchase homes and properties that they had been eyeing during the shutdown…This revitalization looks to be sustainable for many months ahead as long as mortgage rates remain low and job gains continue.”

With mortgage rates hitting an all-time low, dropping below 3% for the first time last week, potential homebuyers are poised to continue taking advantage of this historic opportunity to buy. This fierce competition among buyers is contributing to home price increases as well, as more buyers are finding themselves in bidding wars in this environment. The report also notes:

“The median existing-home price for all housing types in June was $295,300, up 3.5% from June 2019 ($285,400), as prices rose in every region. June’s national price increase marks 100 straight months of year-over-year gains.”

The graph below shows home price increases by region, powered by low interest rates, pent-up demand, and a decline in inventory on the market:

Kate_Spad_Blog_Existing_Home_Prices.jpg

Yun also indicates:

“Home prices rose during the lockdown and could rise even further due to heavy buyer competition and a significant shortage of supply.”

Bottom Line

Buyers returning to the market is a great sign for the economy, as housing is still leading the way toward a recovery. If you’re ready to buy a home this year, reach out to a local real estate professional to make sure you have the best possible guide with you each step of the way.

Daily Mortgage Rate Survey

  • 30YR 2.89%

  • 15YR 2.54%

  • FHA30YR 2.38%

  • Jumbo30YR 3.80%

  • 5/1ARM 2.75%

New Index Reveals Impact of COVID-19 on Real Estate

Earlier this month, realtor.com announced the release of their initial Housing Recovery Index, a weekly guide showing how the pandemic has impacted the residential real estate market. The index leverages a weighted average of four key components of the housing industry, tracking each of the following:

  1. Housing Demand – Growth in online search activity

  2. Home Price – Growth in asking prices

  3. Housing Supply – Growth of new listings

  4. Pace of Sales – Difference in time-on-market

The index then compares the current status “to the last week of January 2020 market trend, as a baseline for pre-COVID market growth. The overall index is set to 100 in this baseline period. The higher a market’s index value, the higher its recovery and vice versa.”

The graph below charts the index by showing how the real estate market started out strong in early 2020, and then dropped dramatically at the beginning of March when the pandemic paused the economy. It also shows the strength of the recovery since the beginning of May.

Kate_Spad_Blog_The_Housing_Market_Recovery_Index.jpg

It’s clear to see that the housing market is showing promising signs of recovery from the deep economic cuts we experienced earlier this spring. As noted by Dean Mon, Chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB):

“As the nation reopens, housing is well-positioned to lead the economy forward.”

The data today indicates the housing market is already on the way up.

Bottom Line

Staying connected to the housing market’s performance over the coming months will be essential, as we continue to evaluate exactly how the housing market is doing in this uncharted time ahead.

One of the Top Reasons to Own a Home

One of the benefits of homeownership is that it is a “forced savings plan.” Here’s how it works: You make a mortgage payment each month. Part of that payment is applied to the principal balance of your mortgage. Each month you owe less on the home. The difference between the value of the home and what you owe is called equity.

If your home has appreciated since the time you purchased it, that increase in value also raises your equity. Over time, the equity in your home could be substantial. Recently, CoreLogic revealed that the average homeowner gained more than $65,000 in equity over the last 5 years.

Unlike last decade, homeowners are no longer foolishly tapping into that equity. In 2006-2008, many owners used their homes like an ATM by pulling equity out to purchase new cars, jet skis, or lavish vacations. They were pulling out cash (equity) from an appreciating asset, and then spending it on rapidly depreciating items. That is not happening anymore.

Over 50% of Homes Have at Least 50% Equity

The number of homeowners that currently have at least 50% equity in their home is astonishing. According to the Urban Institute, 37.1% of all homes in the country are mortgage-free. In a home equity studyATTOM Data Solutions revealed that of the 62.9% of homes with a mortgage, 25.6% have at least 50% equity. That number has been increasing over the last five years:

Kate_Spad_%age_homes_with_equity.jpg

By doing a little math, we can see that 53.2% of all homes in this country have at least 50% equity right now. Of all homes, 37.1% are mortgage-free and an additional 16.1% with a mortgage have at least 50% equity.

Bottom Line

Homeownership is different than renting. When you own, your housing expense (the mortgage payment) comes back to you in the form of equity in your home. That doesn’t happen with your rent payment. Your rent helps build your landlord’s equity instead.

What Buyers Need to Know About HOA's

When searching for a home, you may end up selecting a property in a community with a Homeowners Association (HOA). Before you buy, it’s important to know how an HOA works and what they mean for you.

According to a recent article on realtor.com,

“In a nutshell, an HOA helps ensure that your community looks its best and functions smoothly…The number of Americans living in homes with HOAs is on the rise, growing from a mere 1% in 1970 to 25% today, according to the Foundation for Community Association Research.”

An HOA is governed by a board nominated by those living in the neighborhood. It is designed to make sure the residents have a support structure to maintain the value of the community while abiding by a set of guidelines called Common Restrictive Covenants (CC&R),

“Simply put, CC&Rs are just the rules you’ll have to follow if you live in that community. Unlike zoning regulations, which are government-imposed requirements on how land can be used, restrictive covenants are established by HOAs to maintain the attractiveness and value of the property.”

It’s important for homeowners to understand that each HOA is a little different, and they usually have monthly or quarterly fees required for homeowners. These fees can vary based on property size, number of residents, amenities, and more. There may be additional fees charged to homeowners if the reserve fund for the HOA cannot cover a major or unexpected cost, like severe storm damage.

The fees, however, also help maintain common areas such as swimming pools, tennis courts, elevators (for high-rise buildings), and regular wear and tear. Although they are an added cost to the homeowner, an HOA can be a major benefit when it comes to maintaining the value of your neighborhood and your property.

The same article continues to say,

“After your offer to buy a home is accepted, you are legally entitled to receive and review the community’s CC&Rs over a certain number of days (typically between three and 10)…If you spot anything in the restrictive covenants you absolutely can’t live with, you can bring it up with the HOA board or just back out of your contract completely (and keep your deposit).”

Most lenders will factor your HOA fees into your loan package, ensuring the amount of the loan is appropriate for what you can truly afford.

There are some great benefits to having an HOA oversee your neighborhood, and it’s important to understand what fees, structures, and regulations will come into play if there is an HOA where you’d like to live.

Bottom Line

When you’re looking at a potential property to buy, be sure to work with a professional who can help you understand the neighborhood’s HOA structure and fees. This way, you’ll feel confident and fully informed when buying a home.

3 Things to Think About When Buying a Second Home

Some rich, urban-dwelling millennials are swapping out starter homes for vacation homes: They're renting in cities and buying country houses because they can't afford to buy in their city's expensive real estate market, according to Farran Powell of The Street.

That's certainly not the only reason why people are buying vacation homes, and millennials aren't the only ones to favor them. But buying a second home isn't a decision to be taken lightly.

"It's important to understand that second homes are different," Jean Chatzky, financial editor of NBC's "Today" Show, wrote in " Women with Money," her latest of 11 books.

There are three reasons why one might be considering a vacation home, according to Chatzky. Here's what you should consider before making the leap.

Read moreMillennials are making 3 key decisions that are wiping out the starter home — and it's changing what homeownership in America looks like

1. You want your own space in a place you visit often — but how often do you really visit?

Chatzky and her husband bought a second home in Long Beach Island, New Jersey, which they use every weekend from May through early September.

But even if you'll only use a vacation home part-time like Chatzky does, a house is still a house. Bills — including mortgage, HOA dues, utilities, cable, etc. — are still year-round responsibilities, Chatzky said. If you live far from your second home, you'll also need to pay someone to check in on the house, she added.

Some vacation homeowners also feel guilty if they want to vacation elsewhere — it can be hard to justify paying for a trip when you already have a place to visit, Chatzky said.

She advises giving the idea of a second home a trial run. She and her husband rented in Long Beach Island for four consecutive Augusts to determine if buying a home there was worthwhile.

2. You're thinking about retiring in your vacation home — but will it fit your retirement lifestyle?

Dipping into the real estate market before actually retiring may be a wise move.

"Buying a retirement place before you retire has financial benefits," Chatzky wrote. It's easier to qualify for a mortgage while employed, and you'll get a head start on paying it off; you'll have time to settle into your place and make any necessary renovations; and you'll be able to determine the cost of living in the area, she said.

"Road testing a second house you plan to use for these purposes is even more important than road testing a house you plan to vacation in," she wrote, adding that the road test should be longer than a few weeks or days. "If it still feels like a vacation, you haven't stayed long enough."

During this road test, you should consider medical care access, services, culture and entertainment, transportation, and size of the home before purchasing, Chatzky said.

Read moreThe 10 best places in the US to buy a winter home right now, ranked

3. You want to make extra money — but have you considered tax laws?

The advantages of having an extra cash flow through rental income is often what appeals to millennials buying a second home instead of a primary residence. They're using these homes to build wealth and rent them out when they're not living in them, Powell reported.

"With the rise of sites like Airbnb, HomeAway, and VRBO, making some extra cash by renting out your vacation place has never been easier," Chatzky wrote. "But that doesn't mean it's easy."

For one, there are tax laws. If you rent your house for 14 days or less, you don't have to report the rental income on your tax return; if you rent it for longer than two weeks, the IRS deems it "a business for tax purposes," — but how the IRS treats it as a business varies, depending on how, you, the owner, uses it, Chatzky said.

There are also other things to look into, like peak rental times, HOA rules, sales tax laws, and possible business permits, she added.

"Keeping the place rented means scouring the market to stay on top of competitive pricing, making sure it's clean and in order before the next renters move in, being responsive to email queries, and dealing with problems as they arise," Chatzky wrote. "In effect, you either devote a big chunk of your time to managing this property or hire someone to do it for you."

By Hillary Hoffower

Business Insider

Experts Predict a Strong Housing Market for the Rest of 2019

We’re in the back half of the year, and with a decline in interest rates as well as home price and wage appreciation, many are wondering what the predictions are for the remainder of 2019.

Here’s what some of the experts have to say:

Ralph McLaughlin, Deputy Chief Economist for CoreLogic

“We see the cooldown flattening or even reversing course in the coming months and expect the housing market to continue coming into balance. In the meantime, buyers are likely claiming some ground from what has been seller’s territory over the past few years. If mortgage rates stay low, wages continue to grow, and inventory picks up, we can expect the U.S. housing market to further stabilize throughout the remainder of the year.”

Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR

“We expect the second half of year will be notably better than the first half in terms of home sales, mainly because of lower mortgage rates.”

Freddie Mac

“The drop in mortgage rates continues to stimulate the real estate market and the economy. Home purchase demand is up five percent from a year ago and has noticeably strengthened since the early summer months…The benefit of lower mortgage rates is not only shoring up home sales, but also providing support to homeowner balance sheets via higher monthly cash flow and steadily rising home equity.”

Bottom Line

The housing market will be strong for the rest of 2019. If you’d like to know more about your specific market, contact a local real estate professional to find out what’s happening in your area.

5 Easy Steps To Avoid Overwhelm From Media Overload

When someone is thinking about buying or selling a home, they want to be well-informed. They want to make the right decision for themselves and their family. They scour the internet for any information they can find about the housing market.

Today, there is an abundance of information available. It is often conflicting news. It can easily lead to confusion and concern, perhaps even causing a potential buyer or seller to cancel their plans to move altogether. Instead, the best things to do are sit down and take a deep breath.

In a recent article, Jeff Davidson, a recognized speaker on the subject of productivity, explained:

“The pace at which new information arrives will accelerate every day…Too often, the reflex to take action only exacerbates your time-pressure problems. Do not bite off more than you can chew, and acknowledge that often, the wisest response to too much competition for your time and attention is to simply slow down to assess the best way to proceed.”

To that point, here is an easy five-step process to follow if all of this information seems overwhelming:

  1. Calm Down – Don’t let the confusion lead to concern or panic.

  2. Slow Down – As Davidson suggests, just “slow down to assess.”

  3. Think – Remember the reasons you wanted to move in the first place. Are they still important?

  4. Plan – Determine whether or not the new information should change anything. If you need further clarification on some points, reach out to a real estate professional in your area for a better understanding.

  5. Act – After thorough consideration, feel good about your decision, whether you decide to move or not.

Bottom Line

Don’t let the plethora of seemingly conflicting information on the housing market stop you from moving forward with your life. Get valuable counsel from an industry professional you trust, and then make the right decision for you and your family.

New FHA Rule Will Ease Condo Approval Process

The long-waited Federal Housing Administration (FHA) rule regulating condominium lending was finalized Wednesday afternoon.  The Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), the parent agency of FHA, published the final regulation and the policy implementation guidance establishing a new condominium approval process.

As a way of background, under existing rules, to obtain an FHA mortgage a borrower must not only satisfy the lender and the FHA that he or she is a qualified buyer but must purchase a unit that is itself qualified for financing. 

According to the National Association of Realtors®, FHA has put its stamp of approval on many complexes, but given the universe, not nearly enough. Of the more than 150,000 condominium projects in the U.S., only 6.5 percent are approved to participate in FHA's mortgage insurance programs.   

To be approved under existing rules, condo communities must submit a pile of paperwork, be vetted by the administration, make any improvements specified by FHA, and then submit to a reexamination. Specified requirements cover the percentage of owner-occupied units, budgetary reserves, insurance coverage, and HOA dues collections. There are also location requirements related to transportation access.  FHA said its requirements were intended to "make sure that the property remains in good standing and will be desirable."

These requirements often left buyers selecting a condo only to find they could not obtain an FHA mortgage for which they were otherwise qualified. This has had implications for homeownership, especially for low-income borrowers, those with less than perfect credit scores, or with downpayments below the minimum level to obtain other financing.  This has become increasingly problematic as prices for single-family homes have escalated, making condo purchases more important as an option for entry-level buyers.

The new rule, which becomes effective on October 15, will allow a homebuyer to obtain an FHA mortgage for an individual condo unit in an unapproved condominium project if that project is completed and meets the following criteria:

  • In a development with fewer than 10 units, no more than two can be insured by FHA.

  • In a development that exceeds 10 units, a maximum of 10 percent can be insured by the FHA.

  • A minimum of 50 percent of project units must be owner-occupied.

The rule change also extends the certification period from two to three years and expands the eligibility criteria for mixed-use units.

HUD estimates the new rules will make an additional 20,000 to 60,000 condo units eligible for FHA insured loans each year.

HUD Acting Deputy Secretary and FHA Commissioner Brian Montgomery said, "Today we are making certain FHA responds to what the market is telling us. This new rule allows FHA to meet its core mission to support eligible borrowers who are ready for homeownership and are most likely to enter the market with the purchase of a condominium."

BY: JANN SWANSON

Rising Affordability in Purchasing Real Estate

BY: JANN SWANSON

Black Knight has good news for potential homebuyers, especially those in the market for their first home. The new edition of the company's Mortgage Monitor says the recent decline in mortgage interest rates has made home affordability the best it has been in 18 months.

With the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hovering around 3.75 percent, it now takes 21.3 percent of the nation's median monthly income to make a mortgage payment on the median priced home. This is down from 23.3 percent in November of last year and more affordable than the long-term ratio of around 25 percent that was in-play during a time when the market was generally considered to be "normal," 1995 to 2003. It is also much lower than the 34.5 percent ratio at the height of the housing boom.

The rising payment-to-income ratio, as it hit its recent peak last November, appeared to trigger a strong reaction in both sales and home prices.  Given its relatively modest historical position, Black Knight suggests there may be heightened sensitivity to affordability concerns in today's market. Both existing and new home sales have been ragged since then and, although home prices continued to rise, that rate at which they did so slowed considerably.

The average home price has gone up by more than $12 thousand since interest rates peaked last November, but the monthly payment has declined by $108 for an average home purchased with a 20 percent down payment.  Black Knight says this is the equivalent of a 15 percent increase in buying power and means a homebuyer could pay $45,000 more for a home without seeing an increase in the monthly payment.

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Of course, with lower rates and higher affordability, demand is growing again.  The company notes that, the 15-month pattern of price deceleration it had been tracking seems to have leveled off. The annual home price appreciation rate held steady in June at 3.78 percent.

Black Knight cautions that it takes time for impacts for interest rate changes to show up in housing market numbers; even after homebuyers react, there is a time lag due to contract, offer, closing, and recording times.  Therefore, the flat appreciation rate from May to June could be just the beginning and the 3.75 interest rate that hit at the end of June may not show up in home sale and price changes until August or September.

There is a large spread of payment to income ratios across the states, but affordability is improving.  Where nine states were less affordable than their long-term norms back in November, only California and Hawaii remained so as of July.

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Housing is least affordable along the western U.S. and parts of the northeast, while the Midwest and parts of the South are home to some of the lowest payment-to-income ratios.  Not only is housing in the Midwest the most affordable, but it is also the furthest below its own long-term average, as income growth there has been more in line with home price growth than in other areas.

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Even in California, however, affordability has improved.  The state went from having one of the top five home price growth rates of any state (8.6 percent) one year ago to second-to-last as of June 2019, with home price growth slowing to just 1.3 percent year-over-year.  The payment ratio in the state is now 34 percent, down 4 percentage point from November. That is, however, 2.5 points above its long-term ratio.  Growth declines in several of the West Coast's largest markets has been significant up; prices in the last 12 months have increased by 1.1 percent or less in Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego and Seattle. 

Price growth among condominiums have been experiencing greater slowing over the last 12 months than have prices of single-family homes. Up until then the two sets of prices had been rising in lockstep, but now condos are appreciating at 2.2 percent compared to single-family homes at 3.9 percent.  That is a 40 percent differential.  The company points out that condo prices are historically more volatile, they had a faster appreciation rate in the late 1990s and early 2000s, experienced a sharper downturn during the financial crisis and then recovered faster in 2012 to 2014.  Now the tide may be turning again.  The company said this could be due to a number of factors and it worth keeping an eye on.

Black Knight also provided an update on the prepayment rate which had been seeing some dramatic increases as rates declined. That, however, ended in June as activity fell by 7.5 percent.  It was the first monthly decline since January and the company calls it surprising "given that refinance incentive continues to rise, and home sale driven prepayments typically increase from May to June."


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 The declines were evident across servicing portfolios, investor classes, interest type and vintages but the strongest reductions were among portfolio held loans, high credit score mortgages and loans originated last year.  Those were the cohorts that had seen the largest increase in prepayments previous to June.  Black Knight says the pullback may be due to sluggish refi-driven prepayments in June rather than (or potentially in combination with) lackluster home sale driven prepays

Millionaire to Millennials: The Costly Mistake of Not Buying Now

On his personal website, self-made millionaire David Bach makes a striking statement:

 “Not prioritizing homeownership is the single biggest mistake millennials are making.” 

He further stated, “Buying a home is an escalator to wealth.”

Bach explains:

“Young adults in particular aren’t hopping on this escalator, and it’s a costly mistake…If millennials don’t buy a home, their chances of actually having any wealth in this country are little to none.”

He then elaborates on the game of homeownership:

“Start by crunching the numbers…actually do the math...This way, you’re really clear on your goals and you won’t just say to yourself, ‘I’ll never afford this!'

A good rule of thumb is to make sure your total monthly housing payment doesn’t consume more than 30 percent of your take-home pay.”

Bach concludes by saying,

“Oftentimes, buying your first home means you’re not buying your dream home…You’re just getting into the market.”

Bottom Line

Whenever a well-respected millionaire gives investment advice, listeners usually clamor to hear it. This millionaire shares some simple and straightforward insights: “The fact is, you aren’t really in the game of building wealth until you own some real estate.”

Who is David Bach?

Bach is a self-made millionaire who has written nine consecutive New York Times bestsellers. His book, “The Automatic Millionaire,” spent 31 weeks on the New York Times bestseller list. He is one of the only business authors in history to have four books simultaneously on the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, BusinessWeek, and USA Today bestseller lists.

He has been a contributor to NBC’s Today Show, appearing more than 100 times, as well as a regular on ABC, CBS, Fox, CNBC, CNN, Yahoo, The View, and PBS. He has also been profiled in many major publications, including the New York Times, BusinessWeek, USA Today, People, Reader’s Digest, Time, Financial Times, Washington Post, Wall Street Journal, Working Woman, Glamour, Family Circle, Redbook, Huffington Post, Business Insider, Investors’ Business Daily, and Forbes.

Housing Affordability in California: The Breakdown

Ability to purchase a median-priced home: According to the State Legislature in Q1 of 2019 only 28% of the population in Napa County can afford to purchase a median-priced home compared to Lassen county with 63% (the highest affordable county). A couple of others: San Francisco and Santa Cruz - 20%, Santa Clara - 23%, San Diego - 26% and LA and Mendocino - 27%. For any other counties of interest please contact me.

1 out of 4 homeless people live in California. The states with the largest increases from 2016-2017 are:

California - 16,136 (13.7%)

New York - 3,151 (3.6%)

Oregon - 715 (5.4%)

Nevada - 435 (5.9%)

Texas - 426 (1.8%)

The Minimum Annual Income Required During Affordability Peak (Q4 2012) vs. Current.

Region 2012 Q1 2019 Q1 %CHG

CA Single Family Housing $ 56,320 $ 114,860 103.9%

CA Condo/Townhomes $ 44,440 $ 94,690 113.1%

Los Angeles Metro Area $ 53,780 $ 107,110 99.2%

Inland Empire $ 35,170 $ 76,810 118.4%

S.F. Bay Area $ 90,370 $ 186,230 106.1%

US $ 32,000 $ 53,620 67.6%




















Now's the Time To Move-Up and Upgrade Your Current Home

Homes priced at the top 25% of the price range for a particular area of the country are considered "premium homes." In today’s real estate market, there are deals to be had at the higher end! This is great news for homeowners wanting to upgrade from their current house.

Much of the demand for housing over the past couple of years has come from first-time buyers looking for their starter home. Many of the more expensive homes listed for sale have not seen as much interest.

According to ILHM’s Luxury Reportthis mismatch in demand and inventory of luxury and premium homes has created a Buyer’s Market. For the purpose of the report, a luxury home was defined as one that costs $1 million or more.

“A Buyer’s Market indicates that buyers have greater control over the price point. This market type is demonstrated by a substantial number of homes on the market and few sales, suggesting demand for residential properties is slow for that market and/or price point.”

The authors of the report were quick to point out that current conditions at the higher end of the market are no cause for concern.

“While luxury homes may take longer to sell than in previous years, the slower pace, increased inventory levels and larger differences between list and sold prices, represent a normalization of the market, not a downturn.”

Luxury can mean different things to different people. To one person, luxury is a secluded home with plenty of property and privacy. To another, it could be a penthouse at the center of a bustling city. Knowing what characteristics mean luxury to you will help your agent find you the home of your dreams.

Bottom Line

If you are debating upgrading your current house to a premium or luxury home, now is the time!