Napa Valley Real Estate

What is Happening with the Napa Valley Real Estate Market?

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August 2022 Statistics

In August everything was down year over year. The total homes for sale were down 24.8% (65 homes), the number of sold homes was down 28.4% (31 homes), the number of pending was down 24% (24 homes), the average sold amount was down 7.1% ($152k on average), the average dollar per square foot was down 8.8% ($84 on average) and the average number of days on market was down 47.3% (39 days). To get a better understanding of the right time to buy/sell, click here for a breakout by town.

This might be a good time to buy with a potential softening of the market in certain places. Make sure to talk to a lender for preapproval and to understand what you can afford. If you don't have one I'm happy to help you find one in your area.

Today's Rates (please check with your lender as these change regularly):

30 Yr FRM 6.33%

15 Yr FRM 5.55%

FHA 30 Year Fixed 5.60%

Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 5.65%

5/1 Year ARM 6.00%

VA 30 Year Fixed 5.65%

Is the Real Estate Market Slowing Down, or Is This a Housing Bubble?

The talk of a housing bubble in the coming year seems to be at a fever pitch as rising mortgage rates continue to slow down an overheated real estate market. Over the past two years, home prices have appreciated at an unsustainable pace causing many to ask: are things just slowing down, or is a crash coming?

To answer this question, there are two things we want to understand. The first is the reality of the shift in today’s housing market. And the second is what experts are saying about home prices in the coming year.

The Reality of the Shift in Today’s Housing Market

The reality is we’re seeing an inflection point in housing supply and demand. According to realtor.com, active listings have increased more than 26% over last year, while showings from the latest ShowingTime Showing Index have decreased almost 17% from last year (see graph below). This is an inflection point for housing because, over the past two years, we’ve seen a massive amount of demand (showings) and not enough homes available for sale for the number of people that wanted to buy. That caused the market frenzy.

Today, supply and demand look very different, and the market is slowing down from the pace we’ve seen.

What Experts Are Saying About Home Prices in the Coming Year

Right now, most experts are forecasting home price appreciation in 2023, but at a much slower pace than the last two years. The average of the six forecasters below is for national home prices to appreciate by 2.5% in the coming year. Only one of the six is calling for home price depreciation.

When we look at the shift taking place along with what experts are saying, we can conclude the national real estate market is slowing down but is not a bubble getting ready to burst. This isn’t to say that a few overheated markets won’t experience home price depreciation, but there isn’t a case to be made for a national housing bubble.

Bottom Line

The real estate market is slowing down, and that’s causing many to fear we’re in a housing bubble. What we’ve experienced in the housing market over the past two years were historic levels of demand and constrained supply. That led to homes going up in value at a record pace. While some overheated markets may experience price depreciation in the short term, according to experts, the national real estate market will appreciate in the coming year.

Is Lack of Homes for Sale Still a Problem in Napa Valley?

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February 2022 Statistics

In February the total homes for sale were down 19.8% (25 homes) while the number of sold homes was relatively flat(down 3.5% or 2 homes) and the number of pending up 28.6% (18 homes). More glaring was the average sold amount which was up 34.9% ($370k on average) and the average dollar per square foot was also up 55.2% ($311.5 on average). The average number of days on market was up 17.1% (12.75 days). To get a better understanding of the right time to buy/sell, click here for a breakout by town.


This might be the best time to buy before the interest rates go up again. Make sure to talk to a lender for preapproval and to understand what you can afford. If you don't have one I'm happy to help you find one in your area.

Today's Rates (please check with your lender as these change regularly):

30 Yr FRM 4.50%

15 Yr FRM 3.88%

FHA 30 Year Fixed 4.0%

Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.95%

5/1 ARM 3.82%

This Spring Presents Sellers with a Golden Opportunity

If you’re thinking of selling your house this year, timing is crucial. After all, you’ll want to balance getting the most out of the sale of your current home and making the best investment when you buy your next one.

If that’s the case, you should know – you may be able to get the best of both worlds today. Here are four reasons why this spring may be your golden window of opportunity.

1. The Number of Homes on the Market Is Still Low

Today’s limited supply of houses for sale is putting sellers in the driver’s seat. There are far more buyers in the market today than there are homes availableThat means purchasers are eagerly waiting for your house.

Listing your house now makes it the center of attention. And if you work with a real estate professional to price your house correctly, you can expect it to sell quickly and likely get multiple strong offers this season.

2. Your Equity Is Growing in Record Amounts

According to the most recent Homeowner Equity Insight report from CoreLogic, homeowners are sitting on record amounts of equity thanks to recent home price appreciation. The report finds that the average homeowner has gained $55,300 in equity over the past year.

That much equity can open doors for you to make a move. If you’ve been holding off on selling because you’re worried about how rising prices will impact your next home search, rest assured your equity can help fuel your move. It may be just what you need to cover a large portion – if not all – of the down payment on your next home.

3. Mortgage Rates Are Increasing

While it’s true mortgage rates have already been climbing this year, current mortgage rates are still below what they’ve been in recent decades. In the 2000s, the average mortgage rate was 6.27%. In the 1990s, the average rate was 8.12%.

For context, the current average 30-year fixed mortgage rate, according to Freddie Mac, is 3.85%. And while recent global uncertainty caused rates to dip slightly in the near-term, experts project rates will rise in the months ahead. Doug Duncan, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist at Fannie Maesays:

“For homebuyers, we believe that borrowing costs will likely rise with the increase in mortgage rates….”

When that happens, it’ll cost you more to purchase your next home. That’s why it’s important to act now if you’re ready to sell. Work with a trusted advisor to kickstart the process so you can take key steps to making your next purchase before rates climb further.

4. Home Prices Are Climbing Too

Home prices have been skyrocketing in recent years because of the imbalance of supply and demand. And as long as that imbalance continues, so will the rise in home values.

What does that mean for you? If you’re selling so you can move into the home of your dreams or downsize into something that better suits your current needs, you have an opportunity to get ahead of the curve by leveraging your growing equity and purchasing your next home before prices climb higher.

And, once you make your purchase, you can find peace of mind in knowing ongoing home price appreciation is growing the value of your new investment.

Bottom Line

If you want to win when you sell and when you buy, this spring could be your golden opportunity. Get connected with a local real estate professional so you have the insights you need to take advantage of today’s incredible sellers’ market.

Don’t Get Caught Off Guard by Closing Costs

As a homebuyer, it’s important to plan and budget for the expenses you’ll encounter when you purchase a home. While most people understand the need to save for a down payment, a recent survey found 41% of homebuyers were surprised by their closing costs. Here’s some information to help you get started so you’re not caught off guard when it’s time to close on your home.

What Are Closing Costs?

One possible reason some people are surprised by closing costs may be because they don’t know what they are or what they cover. According to U.S. News and World Report:

“Closing costs encompass a variety of expenses above your property’s purchase price. They include things like lender fees, title insurance, government processing fees, upfront tax payments and homeowners insurance.”

In other words, your closing costs are a collection of fees and payments made to a variety of individuals and organizations who are involved with your transaction. According to Freddie Mac, while they can vary by location and situation, closing costs typically include:

  • Government recording costs

  • Appraisal fees

  • Credit report fees

  • Lender origination fees

  • Title services

  • Tax service fees

  • Survey fees

  • Attorney fees

  • Underwriting Fees

How Much Will You Need To Budget for Closing Costs?

Understanding what closing costs include is important, but knowing what you’ll need to budget to cover them is critical to achieving your homebuying goals. According to the Freddie Mac article mentioned above, the costs to close are typically between 2% and 5% of the total purchase price of your home. With that in mind, here’s how you can get an idea of what you’ll need to cover your closing costs.

Let’s say you find a home you want to purchase for the median price of $350,300. Based on the 2-5% Freddie Mac estimate, your closing fees could be between roughly $7,000 and $17,500.

Keep in mind, if you’re in the market for a home above or below this price range, your closing costs will be higher or lower.

What’s the Best Way To Make Sure You’re Prepared at Closing Time?

Freddie Mac provides great advice for homebuyers, saying:

As you start your homebuying journey, take the time to get a sense of all costs involved – from your down payment to closing costs.”

The best way to understand what you’ll need at the closing table is to work with a team of trusted real estate professionals. An agent can help connect you with a lender, and together they can provide you with answers to the questions you might have.

Bottom Line

In today’s real estate market, it’s more important than ever to make sure your budget includes any fees and payments due at closing. Work with a local real estate professional to be sure you have the knowledge you need to be confident going into the homebuying process.


What Everyone Wants To Know: Will Home Prices Decline in 2022?

If you’re thinking of buying a home in today’s housing market, you may be wondering how strong your investment will be. You might be asking yourself: if I buy a home now, will it lose value? Or will it continue to appreciate going forward? The good news is, according to the experts, home prices are not projected to decline. Here’s why.

With buyers still outweighing sellers, home prices are forecast to continue climbing in 2022, just at a slower or more moderate pace. Why the continued increase? It’s the simple law of supply and demand. When there are fewer items on the market than there are buyers, the competition for that item makes prices naturally rise.

And while the number of homes for sale today is expected to improve with more sellers getting ready to list their houses this winter, we’re certainly not out of the inventory woods yet. Thus, the projections show continued appreciation, but at a more moderate rate than what we’ve seen over the past year.

None of the major experts are projecting depreciation in 2022. They’re all showing an increase in home prices next year.

And here’s what some of the industry’s experts say about how that will play out in the housing market next year:

Brad Hunter of Hunter Housing Economics explains:

“. . . the recent unsustainable rate of home price appreciation will slow sharply. . . . home prices will not decline. . . but they will simply rise at a more sustainable pace.”

Danielle Hale from realtor.com agrees:

Price growth is expected to move back toward a normal range, but this is on top of recent high prices, . . . So prices will [still] hit new highs. . . . The pace of price growth is going to slow notably . . . ”

What Does This Mean for the Housing Market?

While home price appreciation is expected to continue, it isn’t projected to be the record-breaking 18 to almost 20% increase the market saw over the past 12 months. Overall, it’s important to note that price increases won’t be as monumental as they were in 2021 – but they certainly won’t decline anytime soon.

What Does That Mean for You?

With motivated buyers in the market and so few homes available to purchase, the imbalance of supply and demand will continue to put upward pressure on home prices in 2022. And when home price appreciation is in the forecast, that’s a clear indication your investment in homeownership is a sound one.

Bottom Line

It’s important to know that home prices are not projected to decline in the new year. Instead, they’re forecast to rise, just at a more moderate pace. That’s why it’s mission-critical to work with a trusted advisor to make sure you’re up to date on what’s happening with home price appreciation in your market, so you can make an informed decision about your next move.

What to Expect of the Real Estate Market in 4th Quarter in Napa Valley

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September 2021 Statistics

In September we saw more inventory year over year and fewer homes sold. The average sold price is much higher than last year and the average number of days on market is lower. The absorption rate is still favorable for sellers but with the interest rates and more inventory, this could also be a great time to buy.

Even with the adjustments in inventory, it doesn't mean that there is a lot of inventory in your budget so if you do need a mortgage make sure to get preapproved and obtain a letter of proof of funds to include in your offer.

The absorption rate in September was 48% (6% lower than last month). As a reminder, typically rates below 15% indicate a buyer's market, and above 20% indicate a seller's market.

In September total homes for sale were up 7% (12 homes). The sold homes were down 28% (33 homes) and the pending was down 13.3% (13 homes). The average sold amount was up 55.3% ($587k on average)but the average dollar per square was down 0.5% ($3.5 on average). The average number of days on market was down 37.9% (32 days). To get a better understanding of the right time to buy/sell, click here for a breakout by town.

Today's Rates (please check with your lender as these change regularly):

30 Yr FRM 3.27%

15 Yr FRM 2.64%

FHA 30 Year Fixed 2.9%

Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.2%

5/1 ARM 3.13%

Do I Sell and/or Buy a Home? - June 2021 Napa Valley Real Estate Analysis

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This Is Still The Time to Sell!

June Statistics

The absorption rate in June was 56% (flat to last month). As a reminder, typically rates below 15% indicate a buyer's market, and above 20% indicate a seller's market. While this is a seller's market, the interest rates are still low which makes it a great time to buy as well!

In June total homes for sale were down 21.7% (48 homes). The sold homes were up 83.9% (52 homes) but the pending was down 13.2% (16 homes). The average sold amount was up 88.9% ($909.5k on average)and the average dollar per square was up 32.5% ($206.75 on average). The average number of days on market was up 53.2% (33 days). To get a better understanding of the right time to buy/sell, click here for a breakout by town.

Today's Rates (please check with your lender as these change regularly):

30 Yr FRM 2.87%

15 Yr FRM 2.31%

FHA 30 Year Fixed 2.5%

Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.05%

5/1 ARM 2.55%

Debating on Selling or Buying a Home in Napa Valley? What You Need to Know is Here!

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This Is Still The Time to Sell!

December Statistics

The absorption rate in December was 33.8%. As a reminder, typically rates below 15% indicate a buyer's market and above 20% is a seller's market. While this is a seller's market, the interest rates are still low which makes it a great time to buy as well! Not knowing what may happen with the new president I would advise to take advantage of the rates now! If you are considering buying and will need a mortgage, I would highly recommend reaching out to a mortgage lender for prequalification. This way you will be prepared and have one up on other buyers.

In December total homes for sale was down 21.9% (43 homes) but the total sold was up 42.1% (32 homes). The number of pending sales was also up 28.3% (13 homes). The average sold amount was up 63.7% (up $602k on average) and the average dollar per square was up 63.8% (up $275 on average). The average days on market was up 29.3% (20 days). To get a better understanding of the right time to buy/sell, click here for a breakout by town.

Today's Rates (please check with your lender as these change regularly):

30 Yr FRM 2.87%

15 Yr FRM 2.40%

FHA 30 Year Fixed 2.35%

Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.35%

5/1 ARM 2.30%

Debating On Whether to Sell or Buy? This Is The Time! Napa Valley Statistics

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Debating On Whether to Sell or Buy? This Is The Time!

November Statistics

The absorption rate went down slightly since last month. It was 47.6% in October and 44.7% in November. As a reminder, typically rates below 15% indicate a buyer's market and above 20% is a seller's market. While this is a seller's market, the interest rates are even lower than last month which makes it a great time to buy as well! If you are considering buying and will need a mortgage, I would highly recommend reaching out to a mortgage lender for prequalification. This way you will be prepared and have one up on other buyers.

In November total homes for sale was down 25.4% (73 homes) but the total sold was up 40.4% (23 homes). The number of pending sales was also up 50% (31 homes). The average sold amount was up 40.2% ($427k on average) but the average dollar per square was flat at 0.2% (on average of $758). The average days on market was down 17.1% (67 days this year at 80 last year). To get a better understanding of the right time to buy/sell, click here for a breakout by town.

Today's Rates (please check with your lender as these change regularly):

30 Yr FRM 2.80%

15 Yr FRM 2.38%

FHA 30 Year Fixed 2.33%

Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.14%

5/1 ARM 2.42%

Thinking About Selling Your Home? Napa Valley Statistics & Analysis

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Thinking About Selling Your Home? Napa Valley Statistics & Analysis

September Statistics

The absorption rate is over 100% again (107.6%) mostly because of the town of Napa again which had a 142% absorption rate which makes this a seller's market. As a reminder, typically rates below 15% indicate a buyer's market and above 20% is a seller's market. While this is a seller's market, the interest rates are at historic lows so this still makes it a great time to buy as well!

The only statistics that were down year over year was inventory which continues to decrease and days on market. As buyers continue looking for more space, we are seeing that the number of sales and pending sales are increasing year over year. If you are thinking about selling, this could be a great time!

This is also a great time to buy with historically low mortgage rates. If you are considering buying and will need a mortgage, I would highly recommend reaching out to a mortgage lender for prequalification. This way you will be prepared and have one up on other buyers.

In September total homes for sale was down 33% or 116 homes but the total sold was up 23.4% (25 homes). The number of pending sales was also up 21% (21 homes). The average sold amount was up 25.3% ($284k on average) as was the average dollar per square foot (up 25.3% at an average of $208). The average days on market was down 5.4% (101 days this year at 107 last year).   To get a better understanding of the right time to buy/sell, click here for a breakout by town.

Today's Rates (please check with your lender as these change regularly):

30 Yr FRM 3.04%

15 Yr FRM 2.57%

FHA 30 Year Fixed 2.43%

Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.40%

Ready to Sell? The Market is Saying it's Time! Napa Valley Statistics & Analysis

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Ready to Sell? The Market is Saying It's Time!

July Statistics

The absorption rate is over 100% (102.6%) which makes this a seller's market. As a reminder, typically rates below 15% indicate a buyer's market and above 20% is a seller's market. While this is a seller's market, the interest rates are at historic lows so this still makes it a great time to buy as well!

The only statistic that was down year over year was inventory which continues to decrease. As buyers continue looking for more space we are seeing that the number of sales and pending sales are increasing year over year. We are still seeing more luxury homes selling and at faster rates. For these reasons the absorption rate is so high. If you are thinking about selling, this could be a great time!

If you are considering buying and will need a mortgage, I would highly recommend reaching out to a mortgage lender for prequalification. This way you will be prepared and have one up on other buyers.

In July total homes for sale was down 25.7% or 92 homes but the total sold was up 30.4% (31 homes). The number of pending sales was also up 68.7% (57 homes). The average sold amount was up 62% ($606k) and the average dollar per square foot was up 19.4% ($114.25). The average days on market was flat at 102 days both this year and last year.  To get a better understanding of the right time to buy/sell, click here for a breakout by town.

Today's Rates (please check with your lender as these change regularly):

30 Yr FRM 2.92%

15 Yr FRM 2.41%

FHA 30 Year Fixed 2.38%

Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.58%

5/1 Year ARM 2.75%

High Absorption Rates = Great Time to Sell! Napa Valley Statistics and Analysis

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We are still seeing more luxury homes selling and the absorption rate is at 72.6% which makes this a seller's market. Typically rates below 15% indicate a buyer's market and above 20% is a seller's market. While this is a seller's market, the interest rates are at historic lows so this makes it a great time to buy as well!

The number of homes for sale is down across Napa County and buyers continue looking for second homes or if they have the ability to work from home they are looking for homes with more space. We are seeing that the number of sales is increasing as the number of pending sales increased in June. For this reason the absorption rate is so high. If you are thinking about selling, this could be a great time!

If you are considering buying and will need a mortgage, I would highly recommend reaching out to a mortgage lender for prequalification. This way you will be prepared and have one up on other buyers.

Inventory continues to decrease year over year. In June total homes for sale was down 19.1% or 68 homes as was the total sold which was down 24.7% (24 homes). The number of pending sales was up 26.4% (29 homes). The average sold amount was up 15.4% ($201.44k) and the average dollar per square foot was up 19.1% ($120.2). The average days on market was up 52.6% (28.25 days).  To get a better understanding of the right time to buy/sell, click here for a breakout by town.

Today's Rates (please check with your lender as these change regularly):

30 Yr FRM 2.87%

15 Yr FRM 2.53%

FHA 30 Year Fixed 2.38%

Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.75%

5/1 Year ARM 2.75%

Great Absorption Rates = Great Time to Sell! Napa Valley Statistics and Analysis

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We are still seeing more luxury homes selling and the absorption rate is at 17.4% which makes this a buyer & seller market. Typically rates below 15% indicate a buyer's market and above 20% is a seller's market, in-between is when both parties have advantages.

Buyers are looking for second homes or if they have the ability to work from home they are looking for space which is why the more expensive homes are selling. If you are considering buying and will need a mortgage, I would highly recommend reaching out to a mortgage lender for pre-qualification. This way you will be prepared and have one up on other buyers.

If you are considering selling, please keep in mind there are new virtual ways of selling homes to minimize the foot traffic through your home and rules still in place to make the buyers feel more comfortable if they want to view the home in person.

Inventory was down again this May (down 15.7% or 54 homes) as was the total sold which was down by 53.2% (50 homes) and the number of pending sales was down 17.6% (18 homes). The average sold amount was up 66.7% again ($1.235M) and the average dollar per square foot was up 40.6% ($295.83). The average days on market was up 71.4% (50.5 days). To get a better understanding of the right time to buy/sell, click here for a breakout by town.

Today's Rates (please check with your lender as these change regularly):

30 Yr FRM 2.99%

15 Yr FRM 2.62%

FHA 30 Year Fixed 2.50%

Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.95%

5/1 Year ARM 3.03%

Coming Soon! Beautiful Rental Off Silverado Trail

Beautiful covered, private deck with vineyard views on the east side of the valley. Ensuite 2 bedroom, 2 bath, unfurnished custom built home on a quiet, private estate. Walkable to CIA and a 5 minute drive to downtown St. Helena. Located in the desirable St. Helena School district. One story with hardwood floors, open kitchen concept with built-in gas range and oven, refrigerator, dishwasher, garbage disposal, large great room w/gas wood burning fireplace. Handicap accessible bathroom w/shower in Master suite, new carpet, central air A/C and heat, freshly painted inside and out. Drive right into attached garage w/electric garage door and walk right into your mud room with full washer/dryer. Owner/Manager on-site.

Available August 1, 2019. One Year lease: $4,500.00/month [not including gas, power and cable/internet], Includes: landscaping, water and garbage.

Click here for more information.

What's New?! Listings! Up Valley Condominiums and Around Sylvaner Ave, St. Helena

Curious as to what Condominiums in Yountville, St. Helena or Calistoga are for sale?

Curious as to what Single Family Residencies are for sale in the Sylvaner Ave, St. Helena area?

I have created a public collections page for each! Just click the links below and send me a message if you or anyone you know is interested!

Up Valley Condominiums

Around Sylvaner Ave, St. Helena

Numbers: May 2017-2019 Napa Valley Real Estate

The belief is that Napa Valley prices are at an all time high however the numbers say something different. These numbers are across Calistoga, Saint Helena, Rutherford, Oakville, Yountville and Napa.

May numbers.jpg