Updates on Wine and Real Estate in Napa Valley
Whether capitalizing on job opportunities, affordability, or warm-weather places to retire, Americans are making moves to these top cities to take advantage of the strength in the current housing market.
A strong economy and lower mortgage rates have made it easier for many would-be buyers to get into the market. According to realtor.com, it just depends on which market.
To find the top market in your area, contact a local real estate professional.
This will be an interesting year for residential real estate. With a presidential election taking place this fall and talk of a possible recession occurring before the end of the year, predicting what will happen in the 2020 U.S. housing market can be challenging. As a result, taking a look at the combined projections from the most trusted entities in the industry when it comes to mortgage rates, home sales, and home prices is incredibly valuable – and they may surprise you.
Projections from the experts at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac all forecast mortgage rates remaining stable throughout 2020:
Since rates have remained under 5% for the last decade, we may not fully realize the opportunity we have right now.
Here are the average mortgage interest rates over the last several decades:
1970s: 8.86%
1980s: 12.70%
1990s: 8.12%
2000s: 6.29%
Three of the four expert groups noted above also predict an increase in home sales in 2020, and the fourth sees the transaction number remaining stable:
With mortgage rates remaining near all-time lows, demand should not be a challenge. The lack of available inventory, however, may moderate the increase in sales.
Below are the projections from six different expert entities that look closely at home values: CoreLogic, Fannie Mae, Ivy Zelman’s “Z Report”, the National Association of Realtors (NAR), Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).Each group has home values continuing to improve through 2020, with four of them seeing price appreciation increasing at a greater pace than it did in 2019.
In early 2019, a large percentage of economists began predicting a recession may occur in 2020. In addition, a recent survey of potential home purchasers showed that over 50% agreed it would occur this year. The economy, however, remained strong in the fourth quarter, and that has caused many to rethink the possibility.
For example, Goldman Sachs, in their 2020 U.S. Outlook, explained:
“Markets sounded the recession alarm this year, and the average forecaster now sees a 33% chance of recession over the next year. In contrast, our new recession model suggests just a 20% probability. Despite the record age of the expansion, the usual late-cycle problems—inflationary overheating and financial imbalances—do not look threatening.”
Mortgage rates are projected to remain under 4%, causing sales to increase in 2020. With growing demand and a limited supply of inventory, prices will continue to appreciate, while the threat of an impending recession seems to be softening. It looks like 2020 may be a solid year for the real estate market.
If you’re planning on selling your house in 2020, these are the top renovations that will give you the highest Return on your Investment.
Regardless of how long you’re planning on staying in your current home, it’s smart to be aware of which home renovations add the most value.
The exterior of a house is the first thing buyers see when searching for a home. Upgrading your roof or siding will ensure your home leaves a great first impression!
It’s exciting to put a house on the market and to think about making new memories in new spaces, but we can have deep sentimental attachments to the homes we’re leaving behind, too. Growing emotions can help or hinder a sale, depending on how we manage them.
When it comes to the bottom line, homeowners need to know what it takes to avoid costly mistakes. Being mindful of these things and prepared for the process can help you avoid some of the most common mishaps when selling your house.
When inventory is low, like it is in the current market, it’s common to think buyers will pay whatever we ask for when we price our homes. Believe it or not, that’s far from the truth. Don’t forget that the buyer’s bank will send an appraisal to determine the fair value for your home. The bank will not lend more than what the house is worth, so be mindful that you might need to renegotiate the price after the appraisal. A real estate professional will help you to set the true value of your home.
Today, most homeowners have been living in their houses for an average of 10 years (as shown in the graph below):
This is several years longer than what used to be the norm, since many homeowners have been recouping from negative equity situations over the past 10 years. The side effect, however, is when you live for so long in one place, you may get even more emotionally attached to your space. If it’s the first home you bought after you got married or the house where your children grew up, it very likely means something extra special to you. Every room has memories and it’s hard to detach from the sentimental value.
For some homeowners, that makes it even harder to negotiate, separating the emotional value of the home from the fair market price. That’s why you need a real estate professional to help you with the negotiations in the process.
We’re generally quite proud of our décor and how we’ve customized our houses to make them our own personalized homes, but not all buyers will feel the same way about your design. That’s why it’s so important to make sure you stage your home with the buyer in mind. Buyers want to envision themselves in the space, so it truly feels like their own. They need to see themselves in the space with their furniture and keepsakes – not your pictures and decorations. Stage and declutter your home so they can visualize their own dreams as they walk through your house. A real estate professional can help you with tips to get your home ready to stage and sell.
Today’s seller’s market might be your best chance to make a move. If you’re considering selling your house, sit down with a local real estate professional to help you navigate through the process while avoiding common seller mistakes.
Questions continue to rise around where home prices will head in 2020. The latest forecast from CoreLogic shows continued appreciation at 5.4% over the next year:
Additionally, ARCH Mortgage Insurance Company in their current Housing and Mortgage Market Review revealed their latest ARCH Risk Index, which estimates the probability of home prices being lower in two years. Based on the most recent results, 32 of the 50 U.S. states (plus D.C.) had a minimal probability of lowering by 2021.
Experts forecast home price appreciation to continue at a moderate rate as we move through 2020 and beyond. With appreciation growing, now is a great time to reach out to a real estate professional and plan for your next move.
Winter is a great time to list a house, since inventory is traditionally low, and most sellers are holding off until spring to put their homes on the market.
Waiting for warmer weather when more competition is on the market will only put your house up against many more choices for buyers.
Get your house ready to sell now with quick and easy fixes that make a big impact.
Black Friday is behind us and holiday gifts are flying off the shelves in stores and online. Unlike last year, however, there’s another type of buyer that is very active this winter – the homebuyer.
Each month, ShowingTime releases their Showing Index, which tracks the average number of appointments received on active U.S. house listings. The latest index revealed:
“Traffic was more active once again compared to 2018, as the nation saw its third straight month of higher year-over-year showing activity…The 5.5% increase in showings nationwide was the largest jump in activity during the now three-month streak of year-over-year increases vs. 2018.”
The same report indicates showings increased in every region of the country:
The South increased by 10.8%
The West increased by 8.6%
The Northeast increased by 3.8%
The Midwest increased by 1.5%
One of the main reasons buyer traffic has increased year-over-year is that mortgage rates have fallen dramatically. According to Freddie Mac, the average mortgage rate last December was 4.64%. Today, the rate is almost a full percentage point lower!
There are first-time, move-up, and move-down buyers actively looking for the home of their dreams this winter. If you’re thinking of selling your house in 2020, you don’t need to wait until the spring to do it. Your potential buyer may be searching for a home in your neighborhood right now.
It may seem hard to imagine that the home you’re in today – whether it’s your starter home or just one you’ve fallen in love with along the way – might not be your forever home.
The good news is, it’s okay to admit if your house no longer fits your needs.
According to the latest Home Price Insights from CoreLogic, prices have appreciated 3.5% year-over-year. At the same time, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports inventory has dropped 4.3% from one year ago.
These two statistics are directly related to one another. As inventory has decreased and demand has increased, prices have been driven up.
This is great news if you own a home and are thinking about selling. The equity in your house has likely risen as prices have increased. Even better is the fact that there’s a large pool of buyers out there searching for the American dream, and your home may be high on their wish list.
Bottom Line
If you think you’ve outgrown your home, reach out to a real estate professional to discuss local market conditions and determine if now is the best time for you to sell.
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Kate Spadarotto
With the price of homes going up due to a strong economy and high demand, mortgage rates are helping to balance it all out by keeping things affordable.
Essentially, the lower your mortgage rate, the lower your monthly payments.
With Freddie Mac predicting that mortgage rates should stay where they are for the next 12 months, this shouldn’t be changing anytime soon.
The short answer is: yes and yes.
As said above, low mortgage rates mean it’s a great time for anyone to buy: whether it’s for the first, second or fifth time. This is especially true for someone looking to upgrade their home and purchase one in a higher bracket.
The low mortgage rate will help you afford more house at a lower monthly payment.
Combine that with low inventory and high demand, and you have an equally good seller’s market. This goes especially for homes in the low to mid-range.
Data from the leading experts in real estate and mortgage lending says yes.
But before anyone panics, that means now is the best time to buy and sell.
With mortgage rates expecting to stay where they are and an anticipated 3.5-5% price appreciation happening in the next year, this is without a doubt the best time to buy.
Waiting only means one thing: spending more for the same house.
Take a look at our price appreciation slide so you can show them the facts to back it up.
Making updates could mean a higher asking price. It could also mean investment loss.
Depending on the type of updates needed, the market’s current low inventory levels put any home that hits the market in a good position to sell. Yes, some homeowners prefer to buy a “turn-key” home. On the flip side, others may want to make the updates themselves, so everything is to their taste.
Check out this post on which updates have the highest return on investment.
Yes, it’s very likely a recession will hit either next year or the year after. However, this in no way means a housing market catastrophe like the one that occurred in 2008.
Here’s why:
-Of the last five recessions, only two saw a decline in home values with three seeing increases.
-The two that saw declines were in 1991 (-1.9%) and of course, 2008 (-19.7%).
-The current market does not remotely resemble the one before the 2008 crash.
-The top causes for the next recession have nothing to do with the housing market, unlike that of 2008 when risky borrowing led to a bubble that was bound to burst.
Some Highlights:
Existing Home Sales are currently at an annual pace of 5.46 million.
The inventory of existing homes for sale remains below the 6 months needed for a normal market and is now at a 3.9-month supply.
Inventory remains low due to high demand from buyers who are still looking for a house to buy!
At this time of year, many families come together to celebrate the season. It’s also the time when many realize their homes are just not quite big enough to host all of their guests and loved ones. Are you one of those homeowners dreaming for a larger space to call home?
According to the Q3 2019 U.S. Home Equity & Underwater Report by ATTOM Data Solutions,
“14.4 million residential properties in the United States were considered equity rich, meaning that the combined estimated amount of loans secured by those properties was 50 percent or less of their estimated market value.”
This means that one in four of the 54 million mortgaged homes in the U.S. have at least 50% equity. If these homeowners decide to sell, they can use their equity to put toward the purchase of a new home. Maybe you’ll be one of them.
NAR recently released their 2019 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers showing that,
“This year, home sellers cited that they sold their homes for a median of $60,000 more than they purchased it, up from $55,500 the year prior. This accounted for a 31 percent price gain, up from 29 percent the year before.”
Here’s the equity gain breakdown based on the number of years these sellers lived in their homes:
Bottom Line
If you’re one of the many homeowners with big dreams of owning a larger home, contact a local real estate professional today. Working with a trusted advisor to find out how much equity you have is a great step toward putting your move-up plan in motion.
Below are five compelling reasons to list your house this winter.
The latest Buyer Traffic Report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows that buyer demand remains strong throughout the vast majority of the country. These buyers are ready, willing, and able to purchase, and are in the market right now. More often than not, in many areas of the country, multiple buyers are competing with each other to buy the same home.
Take advantage of the buyer activity currently in the market.
Inventory is still under the 6-month supply needed for a normal housing market. This means in the majority of the country, there are not enough homes for sale to satisfy the number of buyers in the market.
Historically, a homeowner would stay an average of six years in his or her home. Since 2011, that number has hovered between nine and ten years. There is a pent-up desire for many homeowners to move as they were unable to sell over the last few years due to a negative equity situation. As home values continue to appreciate, more and more homeowners will be given the freedom to move.
Many homeowners were reluctant to list their homes over the last couple of years, for fear they would not find a home to move into. That is all changing now as more homes come to market at the higher end. The choices buyers have will continue to increase. Don’t wait until additional inventory comes to market before you decide to sell.
Traditionally, homeowners think about spring as a great time to list their homes, when more buyer traffic may be out there actively searching. In the winter, however, the buyers who are seeking a home – whether for relocation or otherwise – are serious ones. They’re ready to make offers and they’re eager to move, often quickly. Your house may be exactly what they’re looking for, so listing when other potential sellers are holding off may be your best opportunity to shine.
If your next move will be into the premium or luxury market, now is the time to move up. There is currently ample inventory for sale at higher price ranges. This means if you’re planning on selling a starter or trade-up home and moving into your dream home, you’ll be able to do that now. Demand for your entry-level home is high, and inventory in the luxury or premium market is too.
According to CoreLogic, prices are projected to appreciate by 5.6% over the next year. If you are moving to a higher-priced home, it will wind up costing you more in raw dollars (both in down payment and in your mortgage) if you wait.
Look at the reason you decided to sell in the first place and determine whether it’s worth waiting. Is money more important than being with family? Are you ready to go on with your life the way you think you should?
Only you know the answers to these questions. You have the power to take control of the situation by putting your home on the market this winter. Perhaps the time has come for you and your family to move on and start living the life you desire.
When selling your house, there are a few key things you can prioritize to have the greatest impact for a faster sale:
Declutter your home! Pack away all personal items like pictures, awards, and sentimental belongings. Make buyers feel like they belong in the house. According to the 2019 Profile of Home Staging by the National Association of Realtors, “83% of buyers’ agents said staging a home made it easier for a buyer to visualize the property as a future home.”
Not only will your house spend less time on the market, but the same report mentioned that, “One-quarter of buyers’ agents said that staging a home increased the dollar value offered between 1 – 5%, compared to other similar homes on the market that were not staged.”
Since you took the time to declutter, keep it organized. Before buyers arrive, pick up toys, make the bed, and put away clean dishes. According to the same report, the kitchen is one of the most important rooms to stage in order to attract more buyers. Put out a scented candle or some cookies fresh from the oven. Buyers will remember the smell of your home.
More inventory coming into the market guarantees there will be some competition. You want to make sure your home is noticed. A key to selling your house is ensuring it is Priced to Sell Immediately (PTSI). This means you’ll be driving more traffic to your property, and ultimately creating more interest in your home.
One of the top four elements when selling your home is access. If your home is available anytime, that opens up more opportunity to find a buyer right away. Some buyers, especially those relocating, don’t have much time available. If they cannot get into the house, they will move on to the next one.
If you want to sell your home in the least amount of time at the best price with as little hassle as possible, reach out to a local real estate professional to find out what you need to do to sell your home as quickly as possible.
Buyers are out in full force this fall, increasing the demand for homebuying in all four regions of the country.
According to the latest ShowingTime Showing Index,
“Home showing activity was up again nationwide with a 4.6 percent rise in traffic, as the traditionally slow fall season began with a marked boost in buyer interest.”
Buyers clearly have the right idea, as mortgage rates have dropped over a full percentage point since the fall of 2018. They’ve hovered in a historically low range since this summer, making the overall cost of homeownership significantly more attractive and affordable.
Here’s the breakdown of how ShowingTime reports current buyer traffic patterns across the country:
“The West Region, which until August had experienced 18 consecutive months of flagging home buyer traffic, lead the four regions in year-over-year improvement with an 8.9 percent increase in buyer activity.
The South followed with a 6.4 percent increase, the largest such improvement in the region since April 2018, with the Northeast Region’s 5.6 percent increase the next largest among the four regions.
The Midwest’s more modest 0.8 percent year-over-year growth rounded out the nation’s promising month.”
With ShowingTime reporting “nationwide growth for the second consecutive month, a first since December 2017 – January 2018”, it’s one more reason why selling your house this winter is the way to go. List while buyers are on the market, before competition with other sellers pops up in your neighborhood.
If you’re thinking of waiting until spring to sell, think again! Reach out to a local real estate professional to discuss listing your house now while buyer traffic is actively surging throughout the country.
First impressions count. That's why your yard needs to be inviting. Trim back the bushes and trees, especially if they block views from the windows and make your home difficult to see from the street. You can give your home some low-cost curb appeal improvements that don't cost an arm and a leg.
Keep the lawn mowed, preferably on the diagonal.
Plant yellow flowers such as marigolds along the walk or by the front door. The color yellow sells.
Wash the exterior windows.
Paint or replace the front door and buy new hardware.
Power spray the house to get rid of dirt and cobwebs.
Buy a new welcome mat for the front steps.
Paint or replace the mailbox.
Paint your house number on the curb or buy a plaque displaying your house number and install near the entry.
Wash or replace a front porch light fixture.
Many homes contain too much furniture. You may benefit from removing 2 to 3 pieces of furniture from each room. Less furniture will make the rooms appear bigger. You can pay about $100 a month to place the furniture into storage or simply stack it neatly in the garage for free.
Remove all personal photographs from tables and walls. Patch holes in the walls or hang non-personalized artwork over the existing nails.
Pack up your bookcases (you're going to move anyway).
Clean out the closets and store non-essential items.
Rearrange your kitchen pantry, kitchen cabinets, and bedroom closets in an orderly manner.
You can hire a professional cleaning crew for about $300 or do it yourself for free. Be sure to wash the inside of the windows.
Rent a carpet steamer to clean the carpets. You may find they do not need to be replaced.
Dust the tops of your doorways and window frames.
Polish all wood floors and clean ceramic flooring and the grout lines.
Wash all light fixture coverings and ceiling fan blades.
To give your home a more open feeling, consider removing a few doors that open into each other or otherwise block the flow of traffic.
Kitchens are the most important room in the house. It's the heart and soul of the home. Even if a buyer is not much of a cook, the kitchen is still where family and friends tend to gather.
If new granite is out of your budget, consider either re-grouting the kitchen counter tiles, which is surprisingly cost-effective, or covering them with granite tiles instead of granite slab.
For wood cabinets, stripping the finish and re-staining or painting will save you more money than re-surfacing the cabinets.
Buy new knobs or pulls for the cabinet doors. If you have 40 or so knobs on your kitchen cabinet, at a cost of about $5 per knob, your total outlay for new hardware will be about $200. New hardware will transform the appearance of your cabinets.
Replace a worn kitchen faucet for around $100 to $200.
Buy new kitchen sink basket strainers for less than $25 each.
Consider installing kitchen pendant lights over the sink.
Professional painters will probably charge you anywhere from $300 to $500 to paint each room, but with a little patience, you can paint the rooms yourself. This is not the time to get creative.
Choose a soft color in a light brown tone (never white), and paint every room the same color.
The painting will go faster if you paint the ceilings the same color, but ceilings really pop if they are a lighter color than the color of the walls. Lighter colors also make the ceilings appear higher. If you go that route, choose 2 shades lighter or white.
For a 10 x 10 room, you will need 2, one-gallon cans of eggshell finish paint. For the amount of money a professional painter will charge you to paint one room, you can probably paint the entire house yourself.
If you have wallpaper in the bathroom, it's most likely peeling and should be removed. You can rent a steamer to remove the wallpaper or strip it yourself.
Consider replacing the toilet and vanity, especially if they are stained or particularly outdated. Many home improvement stores have vanities which include the countertop, sink, and faucet. It will lower the cost and is easy to replace.
Buy a two-light wall fixture or a light bar for over the sink.
If the tub is stained, hire a professional to refinish it.
Replace water-stained shower doors or clean them with a lime dissolving detergent.
Buy a new shower curtain and tie it back with ribbons.
Hang fresh towels and lay down a new bath rug.
Place scented candles near a basket of tightly rolled washcloths to create a spa-like environment.
Stash all personal items under the bathroom sink.
Many sellers believe spring is the best time to put their homes on the market because buyer demand traditionally increases at that time of year. What they don’t realize is if every homeowner believes the same thing, then that’s when they’ll have the most competition.
Housing supply traditionally shrinks at this time of year, so the choices buyers have will be limited. The chart below was created using the months supply of listings from the National Association of Realtors.
As you can see, the ‘sweet spot’ to list your house for the most exposure naturally occurs in the late fall and winter months (November – January).
Temperatures aren’t the only thing that heats up in the spring – so do listings!
In 2018, listings increased from December to May. Don’t wait for these listings and the competition that comes with them to come to the market before you decide to list your house.
At this time of year, purchasers who are serious about buying a home will be in the marketplace. You and your family will not be bothered and inconvenienced by mere ‘lookers.’ The lookers are at the mall or online doing their holiday shopping.
If you’ve been debating whether or not to sell your house and are curious about market conditions in your area, talk with a local real estate professional who can help you decide the best time to list your house.
Tom Petty famously penned the words, “the waiting is the hardest part” in his early 80’s hit song The Waiting, and his thought process can surprisingly also be applied to individuals considering selling their homes today. Traditional thinking would suggest it may be best to wait until the spring to sell when there is a flood of buyers in the market, but right now may in fact be an even better time to list your home.
We can see the overall economy is good: wages are rising, there are near record-low unemployment rates, and mortgage interest rates are still very low too. Over the past 10+ years the housing market has stabilized, so what (if anything) is the biggest challenge in the housing market today?
The answer is simple: it’s inventory.
According to the Existing Home Sales Report by the National Association of Realtors,
“Total housing inventory at the end of September sat at 1.83 million, approximately equal to the amount of existing-homes available for sale in August, but a 2.7% decrease from 1.88 million one year ago. Unsold inventory is at a 4.1-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 4.0 months in August and down from the 4.4-month figure recorded in September 2018.”
While homes are coming to the market, they aren’t coming fast enough! Right now, across the country there is less than 6 months of overall inventory of homes for sale, putting us in a seller’s market. The challenge is that there are not enough homes for sale to increase the supply needed for the number of people who want to buy, especially in the starter and middle-level markets.
To be in a balanced market (meaning we have enough inventory for the number of buyers in the market), we need to have 6 months of inventory available. Today we are nowhere near that number, and as a matter of fact, the last time we reached that height was August 2012 (as shown in the graph below):
When we look at the inventory challenge today, we can see that now is a great time to sell your house. Truthfully, waiting may end up being the hardest part in the long run. This landscape is a great place for sellers who own homes in the starter and middle-level markets to take the opportunity to sell in a sellers’ market, before inventory catches up with demand. Serious buyers are actively in the market and ready to make a move at this time of year. When inventory is limited at the lower end, like it is today, selling before more homes are listed could mean a significant seller’s advantage to those who are ready to move up. The upper level of the market has much more inventory available to move into, so it’s a win across the board.
If you’re considering selling your home, don’t wait – now is the time to make your move! Take advantage of the high housing demand and the low inventory of homes for sale at the lower end of the market and use your purchasing power while mortgage rates are low to go after the move-up home of your dreams. The best thing you can do is connect with a local real estate professional and decide if now is the right time for you.
To understand today’s complex real estate market, it is critical to have a local, trusted advisor on your side – for more reasons than you may think.
In real estate today, there are essentially three different price points in the market: the starter-home market, the middle-home market, and the premium or luxury market. Each one is unique, and depending on the city, the price point in these categories will vary. For example, a starter or lower-end home in San Francisco, California is much more expensive than almost any other part of the country. Let’s explore what you need to know about each of these tiers.
Starter-Home Market: This market varies by price, and these homes are typically purchased by first-time home buyers or investors looking to flip them for a profit. Across the country, homes in this space currently have less than 6 months of inventory for sale. That means there aren’t enough homes on the lower end of the market for the number of people who want to buy them. A low supply like this generally increases competition, drives bidding wars, and sets up an environment where homes sell above the listing price. According to data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) on realtor.com,
“The desire for affordability continues to push down the inventory for homes listed for less than $200,000.00.”
Middle-Home Market: This segment is often thought of as the move-up market. Typically, the buyer in this market is moving up to a larger, more custom home with more features, all coming at a higher price. Across the country, this market is looking more balanced than the lower end of the market, meaning it has closer to a 6-month supply of inventory for sale. This market is more neutral, but leaning towards a seller’s market.
Premium & Luxury Home Market: This is the top end of the market with larger homes that have even more custom features and upgrades. Nationwide, this market is growing in the number of homes for sale. In the same realtor.com article, we can see that year-over-year inventory of homes in this tier has grown by 4.7%. Today, there are more homes available in the premium and luxury space, leading to more of a buyer’s market at this end.
Depending on the segment of the market and the price point you’re looking at, you’re going to need the advice of a true local market expert to help you successfully navigate the home-buying or selling process.
