Opportunity in the Luxury Market This Year

Homes priced in the top 25% of a price range for a particular area of the country are considered “premium homes.” At the start of last year, many of the more expensive homes listed for sale hadn’t seen as much interest, since much of the demand for housing over the past few years has come from first-time buyers looking for starter homes. It looks like buyer activity, however, is starting to show a shift in this segment.

According to the January Luxury Report from the Institute for Luxury Home Marketing (ILHM):

“In a snapshot of 2019, despite pessimism at the start of the year, the last quarter showcased a strengthening, with an upswing in the luxury market for sales in both the single family and condo markets.”

Momentum is growing, and those looking to enter the luxury market are poised for success in 2020 as well. With more inventory available at the upper-end, historically low interest rates, and increasing average wages, the stage is set for buyers with an interest in this tier to embrace the perfect move-up opportunity.

The report highlights the increase in buyer activity in this segment, resulting in growing sales toward the end of 2019:

“According to reports from many luxury real estate professionals, the significant increase in number of properties bought at the end of 2019 versus 2018 is reflective of an early 2019 holding pattern.

Many of early 2019’s prospective luxury buyers held off while waiting to see how prices would react to new tax regulations and other policy changes. Buyer confidence returned in late spring and compared to 2018, above average sales were reported in the final quarter of 2019.”

With evidence of strong buyer confidence, this is great news, as more homeowners are building equity and growing their net worth throughout the country:

“Many homeowners are now diversifying their wealth, owning several properties rather than a single mega mansion. In addition, there have been an increase number of home purchases taking place in smaller cities, reflecting the rising number of people relocating from major metropolises. Their property equity wealth or ability to pay high rental costs have afforded them the opportunity to purchase luxury properties in…secondary cities throughout North America.”

With a strong economy and a backdrop set for moving up this year, it’s a great time to explore the luxury market. Keep in mind, luxury can mean different things to different people, too. To one person, luxury is a secluded home with plenty of property and privacy. To another, it is a penthouse at the center of a bustling city. Knowing what characteristics mean luxury to you will help your agent understand what you’re after as you define the scope and location for the home of your dreams.

Bottom Line

If you’re thinking about upgrading your current house to a luxury home, or adding an additional property to your portfolio, reach out to a local real estate professional to determine if you’re ready to make your move.

You're Going to Need Advice When it Comes to Price

To understand today’s complex real estate market, it is critical to have a local, trusted advisor on your side – for more reasons than you may think.

In real estate today, there are essentially three different price points in the market: the starter-home market, the middle-home market, and the premium or luxury market. Each one is unique, and depending on the city, the price point in these categories will vary. For example, a starter or lower-end home in San Francisco, California is much more expensive than almost any other part of the country. Let’s explore what you need to know about each of these tiers.

Starter-Home Market: This market varies by price, and these homes are typically purchased by first-time home buyers or investors looking to flip them for a profit. Across the country, homes in this space currently have less than 6 months of inventory for sale. That means there aren’t enough homes on the lower end of the market for the number of people who want to buy them. A low supply like this generally increases competition, drives bidding wars, and sets up an environment where homes sell above the listing price. According to data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) on realtor.com,

“The desire for affordability continues to push down the inventory for homes listed for less than $200,000.00.”

Middle-Home Market: This segment is often thought of as the move-up market. Typically, the buyer in this market is moving up to a larger, more custom home with more features, all coming at a higher price. Across the country, this market is looking more balanced than the lower end of the market, meaning it has closer to a 6-month supply of inventory for sale. This market is more neutral, but leaning towards a seller’s market.

Premium & Luxury Home Market: This is the top end of the market with larger homes that have even more custom features and upgrades. Nationwide, this market is growing in the number of homes for sale. In the same realtor.com article, we can see that year-over-year inventory of homes in this tier has grown by 4.7%. Today, there are more homes available in the premium and luxury space, leading to more of a buyer’s market at this end.

Bottom Line

Depending on the segment of the market and the price point you’re looking at, you’re going to need the advice of a true local market expert to help you successfully navigate the home-buying or selling process.

What is the Probability That Homes Values Sink?

With the current uncertainty about the economy triggered by a potential trade war, some people are waiting to purchase their first home or move-up to their dream house because they think or hope home prices will drop over the next few years. However, the experts disagree with this perspective.

Here is a table showing the predicted levels of appreciation from six major housing sources:

As we can see, every source believes home prices will continue to appreciate (albeit at lower levels than we have seen over the last several years). But, not one source is calling for residential real estate values to depreciate.

Additionally, ARCH Mortgage Insurance Company in their current Housing and Mortgage Market Review revealed their latest ARCH Risk Index, which estimates the probability of home prices being lower in two years. There was not one state that even had a moderate probability of home prices lowering. In fact, 34 of the 50 states had a minimal probability.

Bottom Line

Those waiting for prices to fall before purchasing a home should realize that the probability of that happening anytime soon is very low. With mortgage rates already at near historic lows, now may be the time to act.

Top 10 Most Expensive Cities in the U.S.

People relocating for business, new jobs or simply planning a vacation can benefit from knowing details about the most expensive cities in the United States. Understanding how much it costs to live in a city, and why, can make or break a decision to move. Not surprisingly, California cities dominate the list of America’s priciest cities.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• Cities offer a variety of employment opportunities along with loads of culture, sports, dining, and entertainment.

• Because of the desire to live in cities, they can become quite expensive places to live.

• In the U.S., New York City is the most pricey to live in, followed by San Francisco - however, NYC is only #9 on the world's most expensive cities.

• Fast Fact: The most expensive cities to live in 2019 in the world are Hong Kong, Tokyo, and Singapore. New York City, the only American city to make the top 10, comes in at #9.

1. New York City, New York

New York City leads the pack as the most expensive city in the United States; the city, with a population exceeding 8.3 million, also tops lists of the world’s most expensive cities. The cost of living in New York is a whopping 120% higher than the national average. The average cost of homes in New York is about $501,000, compared to the national average price, which hovers around $181,000; home prices range across the five boroughs, with home prices in Manhattan exceeding $1 million. Everything costs more in New York City, from groceries to public transportation. At approximately 4.1%, as of May 2019, the city’s unemployment rate is lower than the national average of 4.3%, further encouraging people the world over to pin their hopes and dreams on making it in New York.

2. San Francisco, California

People make the decision to leave San Francisco every day, as the city’s staggeringly high cost of living and out-of-reach housing prices have been known to break many a bank. Homes cost an average of $820,000 inside the city, whose major industries include tourism, IT and financial services. It takes more than $119,000 to live well in San Francisco, but unemployment remains extremely low at just 1.9%, as of May 2019, due to highly favorable conditions offered to entrepreneurs and the one-third of all U.S. venture capital that these up-and-coming businesses attract.

3. Honolulu, Hawaii

Honolulu residents pay a lot of money for just about everything. Groceries alone cost 55% more than anywhere else in the United States; utilities cost 71% more than the national average. At $58,397, the average household income does not far exceed the average income of other expensive cities in the country. However, people in Honolulu can expect to pay 87% more than the average American pays for one dozen eggs. Honolulu enjoys an exceptionally low unemployment rate of 2.8%, as of May 2019, which means that, if nothing else, people with jobs on this Pacific island paradise can afford to eat omelets.

4. Boston, Massachusetts

Groceries and health care cost a lot of money in Boston, exceeding the average national cost by more than 20%. The city enjoys a robust higher education environment, a booming tech scene that rivals Silicon Valley and historic sites dating back to the 13 original colonies, which makes it one of the nation’s leading tourist destinations. All of these add up to an unemployment rate of 3.6%, but city residents fork out big money to live in Boston; the average home value hovers around $374,000, the median household income averages about $53,163, and it takes approximately $84,000 to live well.

5. Washington, D.C.

Being the seat of the world’s most powerful nation accounts for Washington, D.C.’s high cost of living. Government and private-sector jobs abound in the city, thanks to numerous federal agencies, think tanks, lobbying firms and a robust tourism sector. Average home values in the District stand at approximately $443,000, and the average household income is about $64,267. Similar to Boston, it takes about $83,000 to live well in Washington, D.C.

6. Oakland, California

Being located on the opposite end of the Bay Bridge might make living in Oakland a cheaper alternative to San Francisco, but the city is still a more expensive place to live than most cities in the United States. For $1,673 per month, renting an apartment in Oakland costs double the price of renting in other U.S. cities; the average home value runs about $449,800.

7. San Jose, California

Anyone looking to escape high prices in the Bay Area can head south to San Jose, located within commuting distance of San Francisco and Oakland. The presence of Silicon Valley makes everything in San Jose expensive, including housing that averages about $575,000. The median household income hovers around $81,000. The numerous tech industry employers in the city account for a well lower-than-average unemployment rate of 2.4%, as of May 2019.

8. San Diego, California

A strong defense department presence and military contracting firms, such as Northrop Grumman Corporation (NYSE: NOC) and Science Applications International Corporation (NYSE: SAIC), make California’s southernmost city one of the priciest in America. The cost of living in this city of approximately 1.3 million is 30% higher than the average cost of living in the United States. San Diego’s median household income hovers around $63,990, meaning that many residents can enjoy luxuries such as high-end eateries, yacht clubs and other pricey forms of entertainment. The average home value stands at approximately $477,800. San Diego’s unemployment rate of 3.8% edges close to the national average.

9. Los Angeles, California

Los Angeles brings to mind wealthy, glamorous movie stars, but the movie industry plays a small role in the city’s booming economy. The city's shipping industry also plays a role, as the Port of Los Angeles is one of the busiest ports in the world. A bustling manufacturing sector and a noteworthy start-up scene contribute to the city’s high cost of living. Certain ZIP codes, such as the much-ballyhooed 90210, drive up housing costs; the average home value in Los Angeles is $470,000. The median household income is around $49,745. It takes approximately $74,371 per year to live well in Los Angeles, and more than 20% of the city’s residents live in poverty.

10. Miami, Florida

Miami is the only southern U.S. city ranking on the top 10 most expensive list. A high population of wealthy foreigners, the presence of numerous international financial institutions and the busiest cruise ship port in the world give life in Miami a high price tag. The city’s average household income stands at about $48,100, and the unemployment rate of about 4.4% is just a hair above the national average. It takes about $77,000 to live well in this stylish city replete with newly constructed residential and commercial buildings.

3 Things to Think About When Buying a Second Home

Some rich, urban-dwelling millennials are swapping out starter homes for vacation homes: They're renting in cities and buying country houses because they can't afford to buy in their city's expensive real estate market, according to Farran Powell of The Street.

That's certainly not the only reason why people are buying vacation homes, and millennials aren't the only ones to favor them. But buying a second home isn't a decision to be taken lightly.

"It's important to understand that second homes are different," Jean Chatzky, financial editor of NBC's "Today" Show, wrote in " Women with Money," her latest of 11 books.

There are three reasons why one might be considering a vacation home, according to Chatzky. Here's what you should consider before making the leap.

Read more: Millennials are making 3 key decisions that are wiping out the starter home — and it's changing what homeownership in America looks like

1. You want your own space in a place you visit often — but how often do you really visit?

Chatzky and her husband bought a second home in Long Beach Island, New Jersey, which they use every weekend from May through early September.

But even if you'll only use a vacation home part-time like Chatzky does, a house is still a house. Bills — including mortgage, HOA dues, utilities, cable, etc. — are still year-round responsibilities, Chatzky said. If you live far from your second home, you'll also need to pay someone to check in on the house, she added.

Some vacation homeowners also feel guilty if they want to vacation elsewhere — it can be hard to justify paying for a trip when you already have a place to visit, Chatzky said.

She advises giving the idea of a second home a trial run. She and her husband rented in Long Beach Island for four consecutive Augusts to determine if buying a home there was worthwhile.

2. You're thinking about retiring in your vacation home — but will it fit your retirement lifestyle?

Dipping into the real estate market before actually retiring may be a wise move.

"Buying a retirement place before you retire has financial benefits," Chatzky wrote. It's easier to qualify for a mortgage while employed, and you'll get a head start on paying it off; you'll have time to settle into your place and make any necessary renovations; and you'll be able to determine the cost of living in the area, she said.

"Road testing a second house you plan to use for these purposes is even more important than road testing a house you plan to vacation in," she wrote, adding that the road test should be longer than a few weeks or days. "If it still feels like a vacation, you haven't stayed long enough."

During this road test, you should consider medical care access, services, culture and entertainment, transportation, and size of the home before purchasing, Chatzky said.

Read more: The 10 best places in the US to buy a winter home right now, ranked

3. You want to make extra money — but have you considered tax laws?

The advantages of having an extra cash flow through rental income is often what appeals to millennials buying a second home instead of a primary residence. They're using these homes to build wealth and rent them out when they're not living in them, Powell reported.

"With the rise of sites like Airbnb, HomeAway, and VRBO, making some extra cash by renting out your vacation place has never been easier," Chatzky wrote. "But that doesn't mean it's easy."

For one, there are tax laws. If you rent your house for 14 days or less, you don't have to report the rental income on your tax return; if you rent it for longer than two weeks, the IRS deems it "a business for tax purposes," — but how the IRS treats it as a business varies, depending on how, you, the owner, uses it, Chatzky said.

There are also other things to look into, like peak rental times, HOA rules, sales tax laws, and possible business permits, she added.

"Keeping the place rented means scouring the market to stay on top of competitive pricing, making sure it's clean and in order before the next renters move in, being responsive to email queries, and dealing with problems as they arise," Chatzky wrote. "In effect, you either devote a big chunk of your time to managing this property or hire someone to do it for you."

By Hillary Hoffower

Business Insider

Rising Affordability in Purchasing Real Estate

BY: JANN SWANSON

Black Knight has good news for potential homebuyers, especially those in the market for their first home. The new edition of the company's Mortgage Monitor says the recent decline in mortgage interest rates has made home affordability the best it has been in 18 months.

With the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hovering around 3.75 percent, it now takes 21.3 percent of the nation's median monthly income to make a mortgage payment on the median priced home. This is down from 23.3 percent in November of last year and more affordable than the long-term ratio of around 25 percent that was in-play during a time when the market was generally considered to be "normal," 1995 to 2003. It is also much lower than the 34.5 percent ratio at the height of the housing boom.

The rising payment-to-income ratio, as it hit its recent peak last November, appeared to trigger a strong reaction in both sales and home prices.  Given its relatively modest historical position, Black Knight suggests there may be heightened sensitivity to affordability concerns in today's market. Both existing and new home sales have been ragged since then and, although home prices continued to rise, that rate at which they did so slowed considerably.

The average home price has gone up by more than $12 thousand since interest rates peaked last November, but the monthly payment has declined by $108 for an average home purchased with a 20 percent down payment.  Black Knight says this is the equivalent of a 15 percent increase in buying power and means a homebuyer could pay $45,000 more for a home without seeing an increase in the monthly payment.

Of course, with lower rates and higher affordability, demand is growing again.  The company notes that, the 15-month pattern of price deceleration it had been tracking seems to have leveled off. The annual home price appreciation rate held steady in June at 3.78 percent.

Black Knight cautions that it takes time for impacts for interest rate changes to show up in housing market numbers; even after homebuyers react, there is a time lag due to contract, offer, closing, and recording times.  Therefore, the flat appreciation rate from May to June could be just the beginning and the 3.75 interest rate that hit at the end of June may not show up in home sale and price changes until August or September.

There is a large spread of payment to income ratios across the states, but affordability is improving.  Where nine states were less affordable than their long-term norms back in November, only California and Hawaii remained so as of July.

Housing is least affordable along the western U.S. and parts of the northeast, while the Midwest and parts of the South are home to some of the lowest payment-to-income ratios.  Not only is housing in the Midwest the most affordable, but it is also the furthest below its own long-term average, as income growth there has been more in line with home price growth than in other areas.

Even in California, however, affordability has improved.  The state went from having one of the top five home price growth rates of any state (8.6 percent) one year ago to second-to-last as of June 2019, with home price growth slowing to just 1.3 percent year-over-year.  The payment ratio in the state is now 34 percent, down 4 percentage point from November. That is, however, 2.5 points above its long-term ratio.  Growth declines in several of the West Coast's largest markets has been significant up; prices in the last 12 months have increased by 1.1 percent or less in Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego and Seattle. 

Price growth among condominiums have been experiencing greater slowing over the last 12 months than have prices of single-family homes. Up until then the two sets of prices had been rising in lockstep, but now condos are appreciating at 2.2 percent compared to single-family homes at 3.9 percent.  That is a 40 percent differential.  The company points out that condo prices are historically more volatile, they had a faster appreciation rate in the late 1990s and early 2000s, experienced a sharper downturn during the financial crisis and then recovered faster in 2012 to 2014.  Now the tide may be turning again.  The company said this could be due to a number of factors and it worth keeping an eye on.

Black Knight also provided an update on the prepayment rate which had been seeing some dramatic increases as rates declined. That, however, ended in June as activity fell by 7.5 percent.  It was the first monthly decline since January and the company calls it surprising "given that refinance incentive continues to rise, and home sale driven prepayments typically increase from May to June."

 The declines were evident across servicing portfolios, investor classes, interest type and vintages but the strongest reductions were among portfolio held loans, high credit score mortgages and loans originated last year.  Those were the cohorts that had seen the largest increase in prepayments previous to June.  Black Knight says the pullback may be due to sluggish refi-driven prepayments in June rather than (or potentially in combination with) lackluster home sale driven prepays

Now's the Time To Move-Up and Upgrade Your Current Home

Homes priced at the top 25% of the price range for a particular area of the country are considered "premium homes." In today’s real estate market, there are deals to be had at the higher end! This is great news for homeowners wanting to upgrade from their current house.

Much of the demand for housing over the past couple of years has come from first-time buyers looking for their starter home. Many of the more expensive homes listed for sale have not seen as much interest.

According to ILHM’s Luxury Report, this mismatch in demand and inventory of luxury and premium homes has created a Buyer’s Market. For the purpose of the report, a luxury home was defined as one that costs $1 million or more.

“A Buyer’s Market indicates that buyers have greater control over the price point. This market type is demonstrated by a substantial number of homes on the market and few sales, suggesting demand for residential properties is slow for that market and/or price point.”

The authors of the report were quick to point out that current conditions at the higher end of the market are no cause for concern.

“While luxury homes may take longer to sell than in previous years, the slower pace, increased inventory levels and larger differences between list and sold prices, represent a normalization of the market, not a downturn.”

Luxury can mean different things to different people. To one person, luxury is a secluded home with plenty of property and privacy. To another, it could be a penthouse at the center of a bustling city. Knowing what characteristics mean luxury to you will help your agent find you the home of your dreams.

Bottom Line

If you are debating upgrading your current house to a premium or luxury home, now is the time!