Updates on Wine and Real Estate in Napa Valley
Some Highlights:
Interest rates are projected to increase steadily heading into 2020.
The higher your interest rate, the more money you will end up paying for your home and the higher your monthly payment will be.
Rates are still low right now – don’t wait until they hit 5% to start searching for your dream home!
Over the last few years, many sellers have been hesitant to put their houses on the market because they feared not being able to find another home to buy.
We’ve reported on inventory shortages in the past, and it’s been a constant concern for potential buyers throughout recent years. New research shows the inventory concern is starting to decrease among potential buyers.
According to First American, the two leading obstacles to homeownership that buyers feel today are Affordability and Limited Inventory. This means the feeling that homes are less affordable has risen, while the fear of limited inventory has decreased, delivering a wealth of good news for sellers.
At the same time, over the past 12 months, we’ve seen a steady month-over-month increase in the number of homes coming to market for purchase. In the past, the lack of listings and available inventory slowed down the real estate market. This recent increase in current inventory has many buyers and sellers now thinking it is time to make their move – and rightfully so! For the last two months, we’ve seen over 4 months of inventory become available for sale, a promising number that’s been slowly increasing this year and creating more buying opportunities.
To further support the idea of an improving real estate market, Sam Khater, the Chief Economist at Freddie Mac says,
“…In the near-term, we expect the housing market to continue to improve from both a sales and price perspective.”
Many experts, like Sam, believe the second half of 2019 will drive a stronger market than we saw at the beginning of the year. This is great news for homeowners who have put off getting their houses on the market and are now ready to make a move.
What a difference we’ve seen over the course of this year! If you’re thinking of selling, now is the time as inventory is on the rise.
Mortgage rates moved decisively higher this week as the underlying bond market finally began shifting gears. After the Fed meeting in June, rates moved to the lowest levels in more than 2 years and had been holding in a narrow range since then. The risks of a breakout were set to increase as the market digested several key events. One of the most important of those events was this week's congressional testimony by Fed Chair Powell.
Interestingly enough, Powell's testimony actually helped rates at first. In the 2nd part of the testimony yesterday, there wasn't much of a market reaction. Instead, it was stronger economic data and poorly received Treasury auction that pummeled the bond market. As bonds weaken, rates rise.
Not all lenders fully adjusted their rate sheets to reflect yesterday's market movement. That means many lenders offered even higher rates on Friday despite the fact that the underlying bond market actually improved somewhat. That leaves today's rates at the highest levels since before the Fed meeting on June 19th.
Loan Originator Perspective
Bond markets recovered a good portion of yesterday's pronounced losses, but we're far from out of the danger zone here. Market sentiment has gone from bond-friendly to (at least) bond-neutral. It's going to take a LOT to spur rates lower, and not much motivation for them to rise. I'm locking loans closing within 45 days. -Ted Rood, Senior Originator
Today's Most Prevalent Rates
30YR FIXED - 4.00%
FHA/VA - 3.625%
15 YEAR FIXED - 3.5-3.625%
5 YEAR ARMS - 3.375-3.75% depending on the lender
Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations
Early 2019 saw a rapid reevaluation of big-picture trends in rates and in markets in general
The Federal Reserve has been a key player, and while they aren't the ones pulling the global economic strings, their response (and even their EXPECTED response) to the economy has helped rates fall more quickly than they otherwise might.
Based on the Fed's laundry list of concerns, the bond market (which determines rates) will be watching economic data closely, both at home and abroad, as well as trade-related concerns. The stronger the data and trade relations, the more rates could rise, while weaker data and trade wars will lead to new long-term lows.
Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders. The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable. Rates appearing on this page are "effective rates" that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.
Mortgage News Daily
Some Highlights:
Real estate has outranked stocks/mutual funds, gold, savings accounts/CDs, and bonds as the best long-term investment among Americans for the last 6 years.
Stock owners are more positive about real estate than stocks as an investment.
Of the 4 listed, real estate is the only investment you can also live in!
