Updates on Wine and Real Estate in Napa Valley
Some Highlights:
The “cost of waiting to buy” is defined as the additional funds necessary to buy a home if prices and interest rates were to increase over a period of time.
Freddie Mac forecasts interest rates will rise to 3.8% by Q4 2020.
CoreLogic predicts home prices will appreciate by 5.4% over the next 12 months.
If you’re ready and willing to buy your dream home, now is a great time to buy.
Pending home sales resumed their upward trajectory in August after declining 2.5 percent in July, making for positive results in three of the last four months. It was also the third winning sales report this month after solid existing and new home sales.
The National Association of Realtors'® (NAR's) Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator of existing home sales based on signed contracts to purchase those homes. It rose 1.6 percent to 107.3 in August from a July reading of 105.6. This puts pending sales 2.5 percent higher than in the previous August.
The number was at the high end of analysts projections. Those polled by Econoday had expected pending sales to be anywhere from flat compared to July to a 1.8 percent gain. The consensus was an increase of 0.6 percent.
The index rose in all regions, but the West put in the best performance, with a 3.1 percent increase to 96.4. This would put it 8.0 percent higher year-over-year. Pending sales in the Northeast rose 1.4 percent for the month and 0.7 percent on an annual basis to 94.3.
The Midwest posted a 0.6 percent gain to 101.7 in August and was 0.2 percent higher than a year earlier. The South's PHSI rose 1.4 percent to 124.4, a 1.8 percent annual bump.
NAR Chief Economists Lawrence Yun said, "It is very encouraging that buyers are responding to exceptionally low interest rates. The notable sales slump in the West region over recent years appears to be over. Rising demand will reaccelerate home price appreciation in the absence of more supply."
He noted that historically low interest rates will affect economic growth, especially home buying, going forward. "With interest rates expected to remain low, home sales are forecasted to rise in the coming months and into 2020," said Yun. "Unfortunately, so far in 2019, new home construction is down 2.0 percent. The hope is that housing starts quickly move into higher gear to meet the higher demand. Moreover, broader economic growth will strengthen from increased housing activity."
With sales picking up, NAR is forecasting they will end the year 0.6 percent higher than in 2018 and will grow another 3.4 percent next year. Housing starts are predicted to increase by 2.0 percent in 2019 and jump an additional 10.6 percent in 2020, which in turn raises GDP growth to 2.0 percent in 2020.
The PHSI is a leading indicator of existing home sales and is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percent of transactions for existing-home sales. In developing the model for the Index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months.
An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined. By coincidence, the volume of existing-home sales in 2001 fell within the range of 5.0 to 5.5 million, which is considered normal for the current U.S. population.
BY: JANN SWANSON
BY: JANN SWANSON
Total home equity, not surprisingly, increased again in the second quarter of the year. CoreLogic's quarterly Homeowner Equity Insights report, which looks only at properties with one or more mortgages, puts the aggregate increase at $428 billion year-over-year, a 4.8 percent gain. The company says that 63 percent of residential properties have a mortgage.
"Home values have continued to rise in most parts of the country this year and we are seeing the benefit in higher home equity levels. The western half of the U.S. has experienced particularly strong gains in home equity recently," according to CoreLogic CEO and President Frank Martell. In July 2019, South Dakota and Connecticut were the only two states to post annual home price declines. These losses mirror the states' home equity performances during the second quarter as both reported negative home equity gains per borrower."
The number of mortgage properties that were underwater, owning more on the mortgage or mortgages than the property is worth, totaled 2 million homes or 3.8 percent of all mortgaged properties. This is 151,000 fewer underwater properties (a 9 percent decrease) from the second quarter 2018 total. At that time the negative equity rate was 4.3 percent.
Frank Nothaft, CoreLogic Chief Economist, said "Borrower equity rose to an all-time high in the first half of 2019 and has more than doubled since the housing recovery started. Combined with low mortgage rates, this rise in home equity supports spending on home improvements and may help improve balance sheets of households who could take out home equity loans to consolidate their debt."
Negative equity at the end of the second quarter of 2019 had an aggregate value of approximately $302.7 billion. This is down quarter over quarter by approximately $2.6 billion, from $305.3 billion in the first quarter of this year.
Negative equity peaked at 26 percent of mortgaged residential properties in the fourth quarter of 2009, based on the CoreLogic equity data analysis which began in the third quarter of 2009.
When broken down by household, the aggregate increase in equity averages a gain of $4,900 since the end of Q2 2018. Idaho had the highest year-over-year average increase at $22,100.
BY: JANN SWANSON
While the increase wasn't as strong as in July, last month's existing home sales posted a second straight month of gains and, as previously, the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) credited falling interest rates. Sales of previously owned single-family houses, townhouses, condominiums, and cooperative apartments were up 1.3 percent compared to July when sales rose 2.5 percent. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.49 million units was 2.6 percent higher than the August 2018 pace of 5.35 million. The increase was felt in three of the four major regions while the West continues to demonstrate some weakness.
The month's results were better than predicted. Analysts polled by Econoday had expected them to come in at an annual rate of 5.30 to 5.42 million with a consensus of 5.38 million.
Single-family home sales rose from 4.84 million in July to 4.90 million in August, a 1.2 percent gain and 2.9 percent above the August 2018 rate. Existing condo sales rose 1.7 percent from July to 590,000 annual units, largely unchanged from the previous August.
Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist, said, "As expected, buyers are finding it hard to resist the current rates. The desire to take advantage of these promising conditions is leading more buyers to the market."
The median existing home price for all housing types in August was $278,200, up 4.7 percent from the median a year earlier of $265,600. It was the 90th straight month of year-over-year gains. The median existing single-family home price also rose 4.7 percent to $280,700. Condo prices were up 5.2 percent to a median of $257,600 in August.
"Sales are up, but inventory numbers remain low and are thereby pushing up home prices," said Yun. "Homebuilders need to ramp up new housing, as the failure to increase construction will put home prices in danger of increasing at a faster pace than income."
Inventory fell in August, down from 1.90 million available homes to 1.86 million and 2.6 percent fewer homes than a year earlier. Unsold inventory is at a 4.1-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 4.2 months in July and from the 4.3-month figure recorded in August 2018. Properties typically remained on the market for 31 days in August, up from 29 days in both July and the prior August. Forty-nine percent of homes sold in August were on the market for less than a month.
Yun criticized the quarter point cut in the Fed Funds rate made by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. "[The Fed] should have been bolder and made a deeper rate cut, given current low inflation rates," he said. "The housing sector has been broadly underperforming but there is huge upward potential there that will help our overall economy grow."
First-time buyers were responsible for 31 percent of sales in August, the same as a year and investors and second home buyers accounted for 14 percent, up from 11 percent in July. All-cash sales accounted for 19 percent of transactions in August, about equal to July and moderately below August 2018. Distressed sales remained negligible, representing 2 percent of August sales, a 1-point decline from a year earlier.
"Rates continue to be historically low, which is extremely beneficial for everyone buying or selling a home," said NAR President John Smaby. "The new [FHA] condominium loan policies, as well as other reforms NAR is pursuing within our housing finance system, will allow even more families and individuals in this country to reach the American Dream of homeownership."
There were month-over-month increases in existing home sales in the Northeast, Midwest, and South and sales in all four regions bested their 2018 numbers. Sales in the Northeast increased 7.6 percent from July to an annual rate of 710,000 units, 1.4 percent higher than in August 2018. The median price fell 0.3 percent on an annual basis to $303,500.
Existing-home sales grew 3.1 percent in the Midwest to an annual rate of 1.31 million, topping sales from a year earlier by 2.3 percent. The median price jumped 6.6 percent to $220,000.
In the South there was a gain of 0.9 percent in sales to a rate of 2.33 million and sales were 3.6 percent higher year-over-year. The median price of $240,300 was a 5.4 percent annual increase.
While sales remained 1.8 percent higher on an annual basis, the West was an outlier in August. Existing home sales declined 3.4 percent to 1.14 million. Prices, however, continued their strong appreciation, rising 5.7 percent to $415,900.
One of the greatest potential sources of confusion for prospective mortgage borrowers is the relationship between the Fed and mortgage rates. While the Fed's policy changes absolutely have a big impact on all sorts of interest rates (including mortgages), a drop in the Fed's policy rate DOES NOT result in lower mortgage rates.
The main reason for confusion is the fact that there's a huge difference from an investment standpoint between a rate that governs the shortest-term transactions (The Fed Funds Rate applies to loans that last for 1 day or less) and a rate that can remain in effect for up to 30 years in the case of mortgages. Even if we use the average life span of a 30yr fixed mortgage, we're still talking about 5-10 years depending on the broader market landscape. You may have heard about the "inverted yield curve?" That's a reference to vastly different behavior between longer and shorter term rates, and it stands as evidence of the different sets of concerns that apply to each side of the duration spectrum. The differences are only more pronounced when we take the shorter end of the spectrum all the way down to the "overnight" level (Fed Funds Rate) and all the way up to the duration of the average mortgage loan.
Beyond the fact that a mortgage rate is very simply a different animal than the Fed Funds Rate, there's also the matter of frequency of movement. The Fed only meets to potentially change rates 8 times a year. Mortgage rates change every day--sometimes more than once. And the bond markets that underlie mortgage rates change thousands of times per day. That means the mortgage market can easily and quickly get into position for any expected move from the Fed. In today's case, where the rate cut was seen as highly likely, any effect that the Fed Funds Rate could ever have on mortgage rates was already priced-in weeks ago.
But let's say the first two points don't quite convince you. The third is irrefutable. The Fed doesn't just take the stage, cut rates, and go home. They release a ton of other info and hold a press conference to discuss their present and future policy decisions. The rates market (for mortgages, Treasuries, and everything else) is tremendously interested in all that "other stuff." Today, particularly, there was a set of updated forecasts for future rate movements. These were a bit less market-friendly than the average investor expected. In addition, market participants interpreted Powell's press conference as being a bit less friendly than expected.
Long story short: there are multiple reasons for mortgage rates to go their own way regardless of the Fed rate cut.
BY: MATTHEW GRAHAM
When searching for a home, you may end up selecting a property in a community with a Homeowners Association (HOA). Before you buy, it’s important to know how an HOA works and what they mean for you.
According to a recent article on realtor.com,
“In a nutshell, an HOA helps ensure that your community looks its best and functions smoothly…The number of Americans living in homes with HOAs is on the rise, growing from a mere 1% in 1970 to 25% today, according to the Foundation for Community Association Research.”
An HOA is governed by a board nominated by those living in the neighborhood. It is designed to make sure the residents have a support structure to maintain the value of the community while abiding by a set of guidelines called Common Restrictive Covenants (CC&R),
“Simply put, CC&Rs are just the rules you’ll have to follow if you live in that community. Unlike zoning regulations, which are government-imposed requirements on how land can be used, restrictive covenants are established by HOAs to maintain the attractiveness and value of the property.”
It’s important for homeowners to understand that each HOA is a little different, and they usually have monthly or quarterly fees required for homeowners. These fees can vary based on property size, number of residents, amenities, and more. There may be additional fees charged to homeowners if the reserve fund for the HOA cannot cover a major or unexpected cost, like severe storm damage.
The fees, however, also help maintain common areas such as swimming pools, tennis courts, elevators (for high-rise buildings), and regular wear and tear. Although they are an added cost to the homeowner, an HOA can be a major benefit when it comes to maintaining the value of your neighborhood and your property.
The same article continues to say,
“After your offer to buy a home is accepted, you are legally entitled to receive and review the community’s CC&Rs over a certain number of days (typically between three and 10)…If you spot anything in the restrictive covenants you absolutely can’t live with, you can bring it up with the HOA board or just back out of your contract completely (and keep your deposit).”
Most lenders will factor your HOA fees into your loan package, ensuring the amount of the loan is appropriate for what you can truly afford.
There are some great benefits to having an HOA oversee your neighborhood, and it’s important to understand what fees, structures, and regulations will come into play if there is an HOA where you’d like to live.
When you’re looking at a potential property to buy, be sure to work with a professional who can help you understand the neighborhood’s HOA structure and fees. This way, you’ll feel confident and fully informed when buying a home.
Some Highlights:
Keeping an eye on the current status of the housing market is one of the best ways to make powerful and confident decisions when buying or selling a home.
Mortgage rates remaining near historic lows and houses selling in an average of only 29 days are just two key elements driving the strength of today’s market.
With the national data shown here, make sure to also determine what’s happening in your local market so you are fully informed when you’re ready to make your next move.
With the current uncertainty about the economy triggered by a potential trade war, some people are waiting to purchase their first home or move-up to their dream house because they think or hope home prices will drop over the next few years. However, the experts disagree with this perspective.
Here is a table showing the predicted levels of appreciation from six major housing sources:
As we can see, every source believes home prices will continue to appreciate (albeit at lower levels than we have seen over the last several years). But, not one source is calling for residential real estate values to depreciate.
Additionally, ARCH Mortgage Insurance Company in their current Housing and Mortgage Market Review revealed their latest ARCH Risk Index, which estimates the probability of home prices being lower in two years. There was not one state that even had a moderate probability of home prices lowering. In fact, 34 of the 50 states had a minimal probability.
Bottom Line
Those waiting for prices to fall before purchasing a home should realize that the probability of that happening anytime soon is very low. With mortgage rates already at near historic lows, now may be the time to act.
When buying a home, taxes are one of the expenses that can make a significant difference in your monthly payment. Do you know how much you might pay for property taxes in your state or local area?
When applying for a mortgage, you’ll see one of two acronyms in your paperwork – P&I or PITI – depending on how you’re including your taxes in your mortgage payment.
P&I stands for Principal and Interest, and both are parts of your monthly mortgage payment that go toward paying off the loan you borrow. PITI stands for Principal, Interest, Taxes, and Insurance, and they’re all important factors to calculate when you want to determine exactly what the cost of your new home will be.
TaxRates.org defines property taxes as,
“A municipal tax levied by counties, cities, or special tax districts on most types of real estate – including homes, businesses, and parcels of land. The amount of property tax owed depends on the appraised fair market value of the property, as determined by the property tax assessor.”
This organization also provides a map showing annual property taxes by state (including the District of Columbia), from lowest to highest, as a percentage of median home value.
The top 5 states with the highest median property taxes are New Jersey, New Hampshire, Texas, Nebraska, and Wisconsin. The states with the lowest median property taxes are Louisiana, Hawaii, Alabama, and Delaware, followed by the District of Columbia.
Depending on where you live, property taxes can have a big impact on your monthly payment. To make sure your estimated taxes will fall within your desired budget, contact a local real estate professional today to find out how the neighborhood or area you choose can make a difference in your overall costs when buying a home.
On Labor Day we celebrate the hard work that helps us achieve the American Dream.
Growing up, many of us thought about our future lives with great ambition. We drew pictures of what jobs we wanted to have and where we would live as a representation of a secure life for ourselves and our families. Today we celebrate the workers that make this country a place where those dreams can become a reality.
According to Wikipedia,
“Labor Day honors the American labor movement and the contributions that workers have made to the development, growth, endurance, strength, security, prosperity, productivity, laws, sustainability, persistence, structure, and well-being of the country.”
The hard work that happens every day across this country allows so many to achieve the American Dream. The 2019 Aspiring Home Buyers Profile by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) says,
“Approximately 75% of non-homeowners believe homeownership is part of their American Dream, while 9 in 10 current homeowners said the same.”
Looking at the number of non-owners, you may wonder, ‘If they believe in homeownership, why haven’t they bought a home yet?’. Well, increasing home prices and low inventory can be part of the reason why some haven’t jumped in, but that does not mean there is a lack of interest. The same report shows the increase in the desire to buy in the last year (as shown in the graph below):
As we can see, there are more and more people each quarter who want to buy a home. The good news is, as more inventory comes to the market, more non-homeowners will be able to fulfill their dreams. Finally, they’ll be able to move into that home they drew when they were little kids!
If you’re a homeowner considering selling, this fall might be the right time, as there are buyers in the market ready to buy. Sit down with a local real estate professional to find out how you can benefit from this pent-up housing demand.
Some rich, urban-dwelling millennials are swapping out starter homes for vacation homes: They're renting in cities and buying country houses because they can't afford to buy in their city's expensive real estate market, according to Farran Powell of The Street.
That's certainly not the only reason why people are buying vacation homes, and millennials aren't the only ones to favor them. But buying a second home isn't a decision to be taken lightly.
"It's important to understand that second homes are different," Jean Chatzky, financial editor of NBC's "Today" Show, wrote in " Women with Money," her latest of 11 books.
There are three reasons why one might be considering a vacation home, according to Chatzky. Here's what you should consider before making the leap.
Chatzky and her husband bought a second home in Long Beach Island, New Jersey, which they use every weekend from May through early September.
But even if you'll only use a vacation home part-time like Chatzky does, a house is still a house. Bills — including mortgage, HOA dues, utilities, cable, etc. — are still year-round responsibilities, Chatzky said. If you live far from your second home, you'll also need to pay someone to check in on the house, she added.
Some vacation homeowners also feel guilty if they want to vacation elsewhere — it can be hard to justify paying for a trip when you already have a place to visit, Chatzky said.
She advises giving the idea of a second home a trial run. She and her husband rented in Long Beach Island for four consecutive Augusts to determine if buying a home there was worthwhile.
Dipping into the real estate market before actually retiring may be a wise move.
"Buying a retirement place before you retire has financial benefits," Chatzky wrote. It's easier to qualify for a mortgage while employed, and you'll get a head start on paying it off; you'll have time to settle into your place and make any necessary renovations; and you'll be able to determine the cost of living in the area, she said.
"Road testing a second house you plan to use for these purposes is even more important than road testing a house you plan to vacation in," she wrote, adding that the road test should be longer than a few weeks or days. "If it still feels like a vacation, you haven't stayed long enough."
During this road test, you should consider medical care access, services, culture and entertainment, transportation, and size of the home before purchasing, Chatzky said.
Read more: The 10 best places in the US to buy a winter home right now, ranked
The advantages of having an extra cash flow through rental income is often what appeals to millennials buying a second home instead of a primary residence. They're using these homes to build wealth and rent them out when they're not living in them, Powell reported.
"With the rise of sites like Airbnb, HomeAway, and VRBO, making some extra cash by renting out your vacation place has never been easier," Chatzky wrote. "But that doesn't mean it's easy."
For one, there are tax laws. If you rent your house for 14 days or less, you don't have to report the rental income on your tax return; if you rent it for longer than two weeks, the IRS deems it "a business for tax purposes," — but how the IRS treats it as a business varies, depending on how, you, the owner, uses it, Chatzky said.
There are also other things to look into, like peak rental times, HOA rules, sales tax laws, and possible business permits, she added.
"Keeping the place rented means scouring the market to stay on top of competitive pricing, making sure it's clean and in order before the next renters move in, being responsive to email queries, and dealing with problems as they arise," Chatzky wrote. "In effect, you either devote a big chunk of your time to managing this property or hire someone to do it for you."
Business Insider
According to the Pew Research Center, around 37% of U.S students will be going back to school soon and the rest have already started the new academic year. With school-aged children in your home, buying or selling a house can take on a whole different approach when it comes to finding the right size, location, school district, and more.
Recently, the 2019 Moving with Kids Report from the National Association of Realtors®(NAR) studied “the different purchasing habits as well as seller preferences during the home buying and selling process.” This is what they found:
The major difference between the homebuyers who have children and those who do not is the importance of the neighborhood. In fact, 53% said the quality of the school district is an important factor when purchasing a home, and 50% select neighborhoods by the convenience to the schools.
Buyers with children also purchase larger, detached single-family homes with 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms at approximately 2,110 square feet.
Furthermore, 26% noted how childcare expenses delayed the home-buying process and forced additional compromises: 31% in the size of the home, 24% in the price, and 18% in the distance from work.
Of those polled, 23% of buyers with children sold their home “very urgently,” and 46% indicated “somewhat urgently, within a reasonable time frame.” Selling with urgency can pressure sellers to accept offers that are not in their favor. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR explains,
“When buying or selling a home, exercising patience is beneficial, but in some cases – such as facing an upcoming school year or the outgrowing of a home – sellers find themselves rushed and forced to accept a less than ideal offer.”
For sellers with children, 21% want a real estate professional to help them sell the home within a specific time frame, 20% at a competitive price, and 19% to market their home to potential buyers.
Buying or selling a home can be driven by different priorities when you are also raising a family. If you’re a seller with children and looking to relocate, contact a local real estate professional to help you navigate the process in the most reasonable time frame for you and your family. I am happy to help if you are in the Napa Valley or I can refer you to an experienced agent in a different area.
We’re in the back half of the year, and with a decline in interest rates as well as home price and wage appreciation, many are wondering what the predictions are for the remainder of 2019.
Ralph McLaughlin, Deputy Chief Economist for CoreLogic
“We see the cooldown flattening or even reversing course in the coming months and expect the housing market to continue coming into balance. In the meantime, buyers are likely claiming some ground from what has been seller’s territory over the past few years. If mortgage rates stay low, wages continue to grow, and inventory picks up, we can expect the U.S. housing market to further stabilize throughout the remainder of the year.”
Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR
“We expect the second half of year will be notably better than the first half in terms of home sales, mainly because of lower mortgage rates.”
“The drop in mortgage rates continues to stimulate the real estate market and the economy. Home purchase demand is up five percent from a year ago and has noticeably strengthened since the early summer months…The benefit of lower mortgage rates is not only shoring up home sales, but also providing support to homeowner balance sheets via higher monthly cash flow and steadily rising home equity.”
The housing market will be strong for the rest of 2019. If you’d like to know more about your specific market, contact a local real estate professional to find out what’s happening in your area.
When someone is thinking about buying or selling a home, they want to be well-informed. They want to make the right decision for themselves and their family. They scour the internet for any information they can find about the housing market.
Today, there is an abundance of information available. It is often conflicting news. It can easily lead to confusion and concern, perhaps even causing a potential buyer or seller to cancel their plans to move altogether. Instead, the best things to do are sit down and take a deep breath.
In a recent article, Jeff Davidson, a recognized speaker on the subject of productivity, explained:
“The pace at which new information arrives will accelerate every day…Too often, the reflex to take action only exacerbates your time-pressure problems. Do not bite off more than you can chew, and acknowledge that often, the wisest response to too much competition for your time and attention is to simply slow down to assess the best way to proceed.”
To that point, here is an easy five-step process to follow if all of this information seems overwhelming:
Calm Down – Don’t let the confusion lead to concern or panic.
Slow Down – As Davidson suggests, just “slow down to assess.”
Think – Remember the reasons you wanted to move in the first place. Are they still important?
Plan – Determine whether or not the new information should change anything. If you need further clarification on some points, reach out to a real estate professional in your area for a better understanding.
Act – After thorough consideration, feel good about your decision, whether you decide to move or not.
Don’t let the plethora of seemingly conflicting information on the housing market stop you from moving forward with your life. Get valuable counsel from an industry professional you trust, and then make the right decision for you and your family.
Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index surged to a new high as consumers became more upbeat about buying and selling, mortgage rates, and their jobs. Five of the six components measured by the index rose month over month.
“Consumer job confidence and favorable mortgage rate expectations lifted the HPSI to a new survey high in July, despite ongoing housing supply and affordability challenges,” says Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s senior vice president and chief economist. “Consumers appear to have shaken off a winter slump in sentiment amid strong income gains. Therefore, sentiment is positioned to take advantage of any supply that comes to market, particularly in the affordable category. However, recent financial market events following when the survey data were collected could weigh on consumer views looking ahead.”
Overall, the HPSI, based on a survey of 1,000 Americans, rose 7.2 points compared to a year ago to a record-high reading of 93.7 in July. Here are some highlights from the index’s latest readings:
Buying: The net share of Americans who said now is a good time to buy a home rose 3 percentage points from June to 26%, up 2 percentage points from a year ago.
Selling: The net share of consumers who say it’s a good time to sell rose 1 percentage point to 44%, up 3 percentage points from a year ago.
Home prices: The share of Americans who say home prices will go up over the next 12 months fell 1 percentage point to 37%, down 2 percentage points from a year ago.
Mortgage rates: The share of consumers who believe mortgage rates will drop over the next year rose 1 percentage point and is up 24 percentage points from a year ago.
Job stability: Americans are more confident about their job situation, with the share who say they’re not concerned about losing their job over the next year rising 8 percentage points to 81%. This is up 16 percentage points from a year ago.
Household incomes: The share of Americans who say their household income is significantly higher than 12 months ago rose by 1 percentage point to 21%, essentially unchanged from a year ago.
Source: “Home Purchase Sentiment Index,” Fannie Mae (Aug. 7, 2019)
Consumers are feeling good about the real estate market. Since Americans are not worried about their jobs, see mortgage rates near an all-time low, and believe it is a good time to buy, the housing market will remain strong for the rest of the year.
Have you ever been flipping through the channels, only to find yourself glued to the couch in an HGTV binge session? We’ve all been there, watching entire seasons of shows like “Property Brothers,” “Fixer Upper,” and “Love It or List It,” all in one sitting.
When you’re in the middle of your real estate-themed TV show marathon, you might start to think everything you see on the screen must be how it works in real life. However, you may need a reality check.
Myth #1: Buyers look at 3 homes and decide to purchase one of them.
Truth: There may be buyers who fall in love and buy the first home they see, but according to the National Association of Realtors, the average homebuyer tours 10 homes as a part of their search.
Myth #2: The houses the buyers are touring are still for sale.
Truth: Everything is staged for TV. Many of the homes shown are already sold and are off the market.
Myth #3: The buyers haven’t made a purchase decision yet.
Truth: Since there is no way to show the entire buying process in a 30-minute show, TV producers often choose buyers who are further along in the process and have already chosen a home to buy.
Myth #4: If you list your home for sale, it will ALWAYS sell at the open house.
Truth: Of course, this would be great! Open houses are important to guarantee the most exposure to buyers in your area, but they are only one piece of the overall marketing of your home. Keep in mind, many homes are sold during regular showing appointments as well.
Myth #5: Homeowners decide to sell their homes after a 5-minute conversation.
Truth: Similar to the buyers portrayed on the shows, many of the sellers have already spent hours deliberating the decision to list their homes and move on with their lives and goals.
Having an experienced professional on your side while navigating the real estate market is the best way to guarantee you can make the home of your dreams a true reality.
The long-waited Federal Housing Administration (FHA) rule regulating condominium lending was finalized Wednesday afternoon. The Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), the parent agency of FHA, published the final regulation and the policy implementation guidance establishing a new condominium approval process.
As a way of background, under existing rules, to obtain an FHA mortgage a borrower must not only satisfy the lender and the FHA that he or she is a qualified buyer but must purchase a unit that is itself qualified for financing.
According to the National Association of Realtors®, FHA has put its stamp of approval on many complexes, but given the universe, not nearly enough. Of the more than 150,000 condominium projects in the U.S., only 6.5 percent are approved to participate in FHA's mortgage insurance programs.
To be approved under existing rules, condo communities must submit a pile of paperwork, be vetted by the administration, make any improvements specified by FHA, and then submit to a reexamination. Specified requirements cover the percentage of owner-occupied units, budgetary reserves, insurance coverage, and HOA dues collections. There are also location requirements related to transportation access. FHA said its requirements were intended to "make sure that the property remains in good standing and will be desirable."
These requirements often left buyers selecting a condo only to find they could not obtain an FHA mortgage for which they were otherwise qualified. This has had implications for homeownership, especially for low-income borrowers, those with less than perfect credit scores, or with downpayments below the minimum level to obtain other financing. This has become increasingly problematic as prices for single-family homes have escalated, making condo purchases more important as an option for entry-level buyers.
The new rule, which becomes effective on October 15, will allow a homebuyer to obtain an FHA mortgage for an individual condo unit in an unapproved condominium project if that project is completed and meets the following criteria:
In a development with fewer than 10 units, no more than two can be insured by FHA.
In a development that exceeds 10 units, a maximum of 10 percent can be insured by the FHA.
A minimum of 50 percent of project units must be owner-occupied.
The rule change also extends the certification period from two to three years and expands the eligibility criteria for mixed-use units.
HUD estimates the new rules will make an additional 20,000 to 60,000 condo units eligible for FHA insured loans each year.
HUD Acting Deputy Secretary and FHA Commissioner Brian Montgomery said, "Today we are making certain FHA responds to what the market is telling us. This new rule allows FHA to meet its core mission to support eligible borrowers who are ready for homeownership and are most likely to enter the market with the purchase of a condominium."
BY: JANN SWANSON
It seems you can’t find a headline with the term “housing affordability” without the word “crisis” attached to it. That’s because some only consider the fact that residential real estate prices have continued to appreciate. However, we must realize it’s not just the price of a home that matters, but the price relative to a purchaser’s buying power.
Homes, in most cases, are purchased with a mortgage. The current mortgage rate is a major component of the affordability equation. Mortgage rates have fallen by over a full percentage point since December 2018. Another major piece of the affordability equation is a buyer’s income. The median family income has risen by 3.5% over the last year.
Let’s look at three different reports issued recently that reveal how homes are very affordable in comparison to historic numbers, and how they have become even more affordable over the past several months.
Here is a graph showing the index going all the way back to 1990. The higher the column, the more affordable homes are:
We can see that homes are less affordable today (the green bar) than they were during the housing crash (the red bars). This was when distressed properties like foreclosures and short sales saturated the market and sold for massive discounts. However, homes are more affordable today than at any time from 1990 to 2008.
NAR’s report on the index also shows that the percentage of a family’s income needed for a mortgage payment (16.5%) is dramatically lower than last year and is well below the historic norm of 21.2%.
This report reveals that as a result of falling interest rates and slowing home price appreciation, affordability is the best it has been in 18 months. Black Knight Data & Analytics President Ben Graboske explains:
“For much of the past year and a half, affordability pressures have put a damper on home price appreciation. Indeed, the rate of annual home price growth has declined for 15 consecutive months. More recently, declining 30-year fixed interest rates have helped to ease some of those pressures, improving the affordability outlook considerably…And despite the average home price rising by more than $12K since November, today’s lower fixed interest rates have worked out to a $108 lower monthly payment...Lower rates have also increased the buying power for prospective homebuyers looking to purchase the average-priced home by the equivalent of 15%.”
While affordability has increased recently, Mark Fleming, First American’s Chief Economist explains:
“If the 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage declines just a fraction more, consumer house-buying power would reach its highest level in almost 20 years.”
Fleming goes on to say that the gains in affordability are about mortgage rates and the increase in family incomes:
“Average nominal household incomes are nearly 57 percent higher today than in January 2000. Record income levels combined with mortgage rates near historic lows mean consumer house-buying power is more than 150 percent greater today than it was in January 2000.”
If you’ve put off the purchase of a first home or a move-up home because of affordability concerns, you should take another look at your ability to purchase in today’s market. You may be pleasantly surprised!
BY: JANN SWANSON
Black Knight has good news for potential homebuyers, especially those in the market for their first home. The new edition of the company's Mortgage Monitor says the recent decline in mortgage interest rates has made home affordability the best it has been in 18 months.
With the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hovering around 3.75 percent, it now takes 21.3 percent of the nation's median monthly income to make a mortgage payment on the median priced home. This is down from 23.3 percent in November of last year and more affordable than the long-term ratio of around 25 percent that was in-play during a time when the market was generally considered to be "normal," 1995 to 2003. It is also much lower than the 34.5 percent ratio at the height of the housing boom.
The rising payment-to-income ratio, as it hit its recent peak last November, appeared to trigger a strong reaction in both sales and home prices. Given its relatively modest historical position, Black Knight suggests there may be heightened sensitivity to affordability concerns in today's market. Both existing and new home sales have been ragged since then and, although home prices continued to rise, that rate at which they did so slowed considerably.
The average home price has gone up by more than $12 thousand since interest rates peaked last November, but the monthly payment has declined by $108 for an average home purchased with a 20 percent down payment. Black Knight says this is the equivalent of a 15 percent increase in buying power and means a homebuyer could pay $45,000 more for a home without seeing an increase in the monthly payment.
Of course, with lower rates and higher affordability, demand is growing again. The company notes that, the 15-month pattern of price deceleration it had been tracking seems to have leveled off. The annual home price appreciation rate held steady in June at 3.78 percent.
Black Knight cautions that it takes time for impacts for interest rate changes to show up in housing market numbers; even after homebuyers react, there is a time lag due to contract, offer, closing, and recording times. Therefore, the flat appreciation rate from May to June could be just the beginning and the 3.75 interest rate that hit at the end of June may not show up in home sale and price changes until August or September.
There is a large spread of payment to income ratios across the states, but affordability is improving. Where nine states were less affordable than their long-term norms back in November, only California and Hawaii remained so as of July.
Housing is least affordable along the western U.S. and parts of the northeast, while the Midwest and parts of the South are home to some of the lowest payment-to-income ratios. Not only is housing in the Midwest the most affordable, but it is also the furthest below its own long-term average, as income growth there has been more in line with home price growth than in other areas.
Even in California, however, affordability has improved. The state went from having one of the top five home price growth rates of any state (8.6 percent) one year ago to second-to-last as of June 2019, with home price growth slowing to just 1.3 percent year-over-year. The payment ratio in the state is now 34 percent, down 4 percentage point from November. That is, however, 2.5 points above its long-term ratio. Growth declines in several of the West Coast's largest markets has been significant up; prices in the last 12 months have increased by 1.1 percent or less in Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego and Seattle.
Price growth among condominiums have been experiencing greater slowing over the last 12 months than have prices of single-family homes. Up until then the two sets of prices had been rising in lockstep, but now condos are appreciating at 2.2 percent compared to single-family homes at 3.9 percent. That is a 40 percent differential. The company points out that condo prices are historically more volatile, they had a faster appreciation rate in the late 1990s and early 2000s, experienced a sharper downturn during the financial crisis and then recovered faster in 2012 to 2014. Now the tide may be turning again. The company said this could be due to a number of factors and it worth keeping an eye on.
Black Knight also provided an update on the prepayment rate which had been seeing some dramatic increases as rates declined. That, however, ended in June as activity fell by 7.5 percent. It was the first monthly decline since January and the company calls it surprising "given that refinance incentive continues to rise, and home sale driven prepayments typically increase from May to June."
The declines were evident across servicing portfolios, investor classes, interest type and vintages but the strongest reductions were among portfolio held loans, high credit score mortgages and loans originated last year. Those were the cohorts that had seen the largest increase in prepayments previous to June. Black Knight says the pullback may be due to sluggish refi-driven prepayments in June rather than (or potentially in combination with) lackluster home sale driven prepays
