Updates on Wine and Real Estate in Napa Valley
Some Highlights:
There is plenty of talk in the media about a pending economic slowdown.
The good news is, home values actually increased in 3 of the last 5 U.S. recessions, and decreased by less than 2% in the 4th.
Many experts predict a potential recession is on the horizon. However, housing will not be the trigger, and home values will still continue to appreciate. It will not be a repeat of the crash in the 2008 housing market.
We’re in the back half of the year, and with a decline in interest rates as well as home price and wage appreciation, many are wondering what the predictions are for the remainder of 2019.
Ralph McLaughlin, Deputy Chief Economist for CoreLogic
“We see the cooldown flattening or even reversing course in the coming months and expect the housing market to continue coming into balance. In the meantime, buyers are likely claiming some ground from what has been seller’s territory over the past few years. If mortgage rates stay low, wages continue to grow, and inventory picks up, we can expect the U.S. housing market to further stabilize throughout the remainder of the year.”
Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR
“We expect the second half of year will be notably better than the first half in terms of home sales, mainly because of lower mortgage rates.”
“The drop in mortgage rates continues to stimulate the real estate market and the economy. Home purchase demand is up five percent from a year ago and has noticeably strengthened since the early summer months…The benefit of lower mortgage rates is not only shoring up home sales, but also providing support to homeowner balance sheets via higher monthly cash flow and steadily rising home equity.”
The housing market will be strong for the rest of 2019. If you’d like to know more about your specific market, contact a local real estate professional to find out what’s happening in your area.
When someone is thinking about buying or selling a home, they want to be well-informed. They want to make the right decision for themselves and their family. They scour the internet for any information they can find about the housing market.
Today, there is an abundance of information available. It is often conflicting news. It can easily lead to confusion and concern, perhaps even causing a potential buyer or seller to cancel their plans to move altogether. Instead, the best things to do are sit down and take a deep breath.
In a recent article, Jeff Davidson, a recognized speaker on the subject of productivity, explained:
“The pace at which new information arrives will accelerate every day…Too often, the reflex to take action only exacerbates your time-pressure problems. Do not bite off more than you can chew, and acknowledge that often, the wisest response to too much competition for your time and attention is to simply slow down to assess the best way to proceed.”
To that point, here is an easy five-step process to follow if all of this information seems overwhelming:
Calm Down – Don’t let the confusion lead to concern or panic.
Slow Down – As Davidson suggests, just “slow down to assess.”
Think – Remember the reasons you wanted to move in the first place. Are they still important?
Plan – Determine whether or not the new information should change anything. If you need further clarification on some points, reach out to a real estate professional in your area for a better understanding.
Act – After thorough consideration, feel good about your decision, whether you decide to move or not.
Don’t let the plethora of seemingly conflicting information on the housing market stop you from moving forward with your life. Get valuable counsel from an industry professional you trust, and then make the right decision for you and your family.
Did you know August 21st is National Senior Citizens Day? According to the United States Census, we honor senior citizens today because,
“Throughout our history, older people have achieved much for our families, our communities, and our country. That remains true today and gives us ample reason…to reserve a special day in honor of the senior citizens who mean so much to our land.”
To give proper recognition, we’re going to look at some senior-related data in the housing industry.
According to the Population Reference Bureau,
“The number of Americans ages 65 and older is projected to nearly double from 52 million in 2018 to 95 million by 2060, and the 65-and-older age group’s share of the total population will rise from 16 percent to 23 percent.”
In a recent report, Freddie Mac compared the homeownership rates of two groups of seniors: the Good Times Cohort (born from 1931-1941) and the Previous Generations (born in the 1930s). The data shows an increase in the homeownership rate for the Good Times Cohort because seniors are now aging in place, living longer, and maintaining a high quality of life into their later years.
This, however, does not mean all seniors are staying in place. Some are actively buying and selling homes. In the 2019 Home Buyers and Sellers Generational Trends Report, the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) showed the percentage of seniors buying and selling:
Here are some highlights from NAR’s report:
Buyers ages 54 to 63 had higher median household incomes and were more likely to be married couples.
12% of buyers ages 54 to 63 are first-time homebuyers, 5% (64 to 72), and 4% (73 to 93).
Buyers ages 54 to 63 purchased because of an interest in being closer to friends and families, job relocation, and the desire to own a home of their own.
Sellers 54 years and older often downsized and purchased a smaller, less expensive home than the one they sold.
Sellers ages 64 to 72 lived in their homes for 21 years or more.
According to NAR’s report, 58% of buyers ages 64 to 72 said they need help from an agent to find the right home. The transition from a current home to a new one is significant to undertake, especially for anyone who has lived in the same house for many years. If you’re a senior thinking about the process, work with a local real estate professional who can help you make the move as smoothly as possible.
Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index surged to a new high as consumers became more upbeat about buying and selling, mortgage rates, and their jobs. Five of the six components measured by the index rose month over month.
“Consumer job confidence and favorable mortgage rate expectations lifted the HPSI to a new survey high in July, despite ongoing housing supply and affordability challenges,” says Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s senior vice president and chief economist. “Consumers appear to have shaken off a winter slump in sentiment amid strong income gains. Therefore, sentiment is positioned to take advantage of any supply that comes to market, particularly in the affordable category. However, recent financial market events following when the survey data were collected could weigh on consumer views looking ahead.”
Overall, the HPSI, based on a survey of 1,000 Americans, rose 7.2 points compared to a year ago to a record-high reading of 93.7 in July. Here are some highlights from the index’s latest readings:
Buying: The net share of Americans who said now is a good time to buy a home rose 3 percentage points from June to 26%, up 2 percentage points from a year ago.
Selling: The net share of consumers who say it’s a good time to sell rose 1 percentage point to 44%, up 3 percentage points from a year ago.
Home prices: The share of Americans who say home prices will go up over the next 12 months fell 1 percentage point to 37%, down 2 percentage points from a year ago.
Mortgage rates: The share of consumers who believe mortgage rates will drop over the next year rose 1 percentage point and is up 24 percentage points from a year ago.
Job stability: Americans are more confident about their job situation, with the share who say they’re not concerned about losing their job over the next year rising 8 percentage points to 81%. This is up 16 percentage points from a year ago.
Household incomes: The share of Americans who say their household income is significantly higher than 12 months ago rose by 1 percentage point to 21%, essentially unchanged from a year ago.
Source: “Home Purchase Sentiment Index,” Fannie Mae (Aug. 7, 2019)
Consumers are feeling good about the real estate market. Since Americans are not worried about their jobs, see mortgage rates near an all-time low, and believe it is a good time to buy, the housing market will remain strong for the rest of the year.
BY: JANN SWANSON
Black Knight has good news for potential homebuyers, especially those in the market for their first home. The new edition of the company's Mortgage Monitor says the recent decline in mortgage interest rates has made home affordability the best it has been in 18 months.
With the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hovering around 3.75 percent, it now takes 21.3 percent of the nation's median monthly income to make a mortgage payment on the median priced home. This is down from 23.3 percent in November of last year and more affordable than the long-term ratio of around 25 percent that was in-play during a time when the market was generally considered to be "normal," 1995 to 2003. It is also much lower than the 34.5 percent ratio at the height of the housing boom.
The rising payment-to-income ratio, as it hit its recent peak last November, appeared to trigger a strong reaction in both sales and home prices. Given its relatively modest historical position, Black Knight suggests there may be heightened sensitivity to affordability concerns in today's market. Both existing and new home sales have been ragged since then and, although home prices continued to rise, that rate at which they did so slowed considerably.
The average home price has gone up by more than $12 thousand since interest rates peaked last November, but the monthly payment has declined by $108 for an average home purchased with a 20 percent down payment. Black Knight says this is the equivalent of a 15 percent increase in buying power and means a homebuyer could pay $45,000 more for a home without seeing an increase in the monthly payment.
Of course, with lower rates and higher affordability, demand is growing again. The company notes that, the 15-month pattern of price deceleration it had been tracking seems to have leveled off. The annual home price appreciation rate held steady in June at 3.78 percent.
Black Knight cautions that it takes time for impacts for interest rate changes to show up in housing market numbers; even after homebuyers react, there is a time lag due to contract, offer, closing, and recording times. Therefore, the flat appreciation rate from May to June could be just the beginning and the 3.75 interest rate that hit at the end of June may not show up in home sale and price changes until August or September.
There is a large spread of payment to income ratios across the states, but affordability is improving. Where nine states were less affordable than their long-term norms back in November, only California and Hawaii remained so as of July.
Housing is least affordable along the western U.S. and parts of the northeast, while the Midwest and parts of the South are home to some of the lowest payment-to-income ratios. Not only is housing in the Midwest the most affordable, but it is also the furthest below its own long-term average, as income growth there has been more in line with home price growth than in other areas.
Even in California, however, affordability has improved. The state went from having one of the top five home price growth rates of any state (8.6 percent) one year ago to second-to-last as of June 2019, with home price growth slowing to just 1.3 percent year-over-year. The payment ratio in the state is now 34 percent, down 4 percentage point from November. That is, however, 2.5 points above its long-term ratio. Growth declines in several of the West Coast's largest markets has been significant up; prices in the last 12 months have increased by 1.1 percent or less in Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego and Seattle.
Price growth among condominiums have been experiencing greater slowing over the last 12 months than have prices of single-family homes. Up until then the two sets of prices had been rising in lockstep, but now condos are appreciating at 2.2 percent compared to single-family homes at 3.9 percent. That is a 40 percent differential. The company points out that condo prices are historically more volatile, they had a faster appreciation rate in the late 1990s and early 2000s, experienced a sharper downturn during the financial crisis and then recovered faster in 2012 to 2014. Now the tide may be turning again. The company said this could be due to a number of factors and it worth keeping an eye on.
Black Knight also provided an update on the prepayment rate which had been seeing some dramatic increases as rates declined. That, however, ended in June as activity fell by 7.5 percent. It was the first monthly decline since January and the company calls it surprising "given that refinance incentive continues to rise, and home sale driven prepayments typically increase from May to June."
The declines were evident across servicing portfolios, investor classes, interest type and vintages but the strongest reductions were among portfolio held loans, high credit score mortgages and loans originated last year. Those were the cohorts that had seen the largest increase in prepayments previous to June. Black Knight says the pullback may be due to sluggish refi-driven prepayments in June rather than (or potentially in combination with) lackluster home sale driven prepays
Ability to purchase a median-priced home: According to the State Legislature in Q1 of 2019 only 28% of the population in Napa County can afford to purchase a median-priced home compared to Lassen county with 63% (the highest affordable county). A couple of others: San Francisco and Santa Cruz - 20%, Santa Clara - 23%, San Diego - 26% and LA and Mendocino - 27%. For any other counties of interest please contact me.
1 out of 4 homeless people live in California. The states with the largest increases from 2016-2017 are:
California - 16,136 (13.7%)
New York - 3,151 (3.6%)
Oregon - 715 (5.4%)
Nevada - 435 (5.9%)
Texas - 426 (1.8%)
The Minimum Annual Income Required During Affordability Peak (Q4 2012) vs. Current.
Region 2012 Q1 2019 Q1 %CHG
CA Single Family Housing $ 56,320 $ 114,860 103.9%
CA Condo/Townhomes $ 44,440 $ 94,690 113.1%
Los Angeles Metro Area $ 53,780 $ 107,110 99.2%
Inland Empire $ 35,170 $ 76,810 118.4%
S.F. Bay Area $ 90,370 $ 186,230 106.1%
US $ 32,000 $ 53,620 67.6%
Existing Home Sales dropped 1.7% from May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.27 million in June.
Low inventory levels are still a factor in the market. The current supply of homes for sale is at 4.4 months, which is less than the optimal 6-month supply.
Median home prices were up 4.3% from June 2018, hitting $285,700. This marked the 88th consecutive month with year-over-year price gains.
Many of the questions currently surrounding the real estate industry focus on home prices and where they are heading. The most recent Home Price Expectation Survey (HPES) helps target these projected answers.
Here are the results from the Q2 2019 Survey:
Home values will appreciate by 4.1% in 2019
The average annual appreciation will be 3.2% over the next 5 years
The cumulative appreciation will be 16.8% by 2023
Even experts representing the most “bearish” quartile of the survey project a cumulative appreciation of over 6.7% by 2023
A substantial portion of family wealth comes from home equity. As the value of a family’s home (an asset) increases, so does their equity.
Using the projections from the HPES, here is a look at the potential equity a family could earn over the next five years if they purchased a $250,000 home in January of 2019:
Based on gains in home equity, their family wealth could increase by $42,000 over that five-year period.
If you don’t yet own a home, now may be the time to purchase. Owning or moving up to your dream home could allow you to ride the increase in equity of a growing asset.
Homes priced at the top 25% of the price range for a particular area of the country are considered "premium homes." In today’s real estate market, there are deals to be had at the higher end! This is great news for homeowners wanting to upgrade from their current house.
Much of the demand for housing over the past couple of years has come from first-time buyers looking for their starter home. Many of the more expensive homes listed for sale have not seen as much interest.
According to ILHM’s Luxury Report, this mismatch in demand and inventory of luxury and premium homes has created a Buyer’s Market. For the purpose of the report, a luxury home was defined as one that costs $1 million or more.
“A Buyer’s Market indicates that buyers have greater control over the price point. This market type is demonstrated by a substantial number of homes on the market and few sales, suggesting demand for residential properties is slow for that market and/or price point.”
The authors of the report were quick to point out that current conditions at the higher end of the market are no cause for concern.
“While luxury homes may take longer to sell than in previous years, the slower pace, increased inventory levels and larger differences between list and sold prices, represent a normalization of the market, not a downturn.”
Luxury can mean different things to different people. To one person, luxury is a secluded home with plenty of property and privacy. To another, it could be a penthouse at the center of a bustling city. Knowing what characteristics mean luxury to you will help your agent find you the home of your dreams.
If you are debating upgrading your current house to a premium or luxury home, now is the time!
